Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 posts a double-digit percentage gain in calendar 2019.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“The probability of a double-digit year we think is the highest since 2009.”
The S&P 500 posts a double-digit percentage gain in calendar 2019.
- Made on
- 2019-01-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-12-31
The S&P 500's calendar-2019 price return is 10 percent or more, that is the 2019-12-31 close is at least 10 percent above the 2018-12-31 close of 2,506.85 (roughly 2,757 or higher).
Criterion MET with a wide margin - +28.88% price return against a 10% bar, nearly 2.9x the required gain. Measured as price return (not total return) exactly as the criterion specifies; the distinction is immaterial here since the 2019 total return was even higher at roughly 31.5%. Both endpoints were taken from the same S&P Dow Jones Indices series to avoid base-mismatch error, and the criterion's own stated 2018-12-31 base of 2,506.85 matches that series exactly. No conflicting credible evidence found. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Strategist Tom Lee: 'Buy the dip' because the S&P could rally 17 percent in 2019
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED series SP500 (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices), pulled directly and computed: 2019-12-31 close = 3,230.78 against the 2018-12-31 close of 2,506.85, a calendar-2019 PRICE return of +28.88%. The criterion's 10% threshold corresponds to 2,757.54; the actual close cleared it by 473.24 points. The criterion's stated base (2018-12-31 close of 2,506.85) is confirmed exactly against the same series.
CNBC, 2019-12-31: the S&P 500 closed at 3,230.78, up 0.29% on the day, finishing 2019 up 28.9% - its biggest one-year gain since 2013 (when it rallied 29.6%).
Wikipedia, 'Closing milestones of the S&P 500', independent corroboration: 'The index closed the year with a growth rate of 28.9%, among its best to date.'
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 posts a double-digit percentage gain in calenda…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-01-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources