Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin/crypto rallies around the Consensus 2018 conference (14-16 May 2018), by more than the gains seen around past Consensus conferences.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“Already one of the largest crypto conferences in the world, attendance this year is up dramatically and coming at a time when Bitcoin/Crypto is down YTD. Hence, we expect the Consensus rally to be even larger than past years.”
Bitcoin/crypto rallies around the Consensus 2018 conference (14-16 May 2018), by more than the gains seen around past Consensus conferences.
- Made on
- 2018-05-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2018-05-18
Resolves TRUE if bitcoin (or the broad crypto market) posts a net gain across the Consensus 2018 window — roughly 2018-05-11 through 2018-05-18, spanning the 14-16 May conference — that is LARGER than the gains around past Consensus conferences Lee cited (10%-70%, e.g. bitcoin +69% during the 2017 conference). Resolves FALSE if bitcoin is flat or lower over the window, or rallies by less than those prior-year gains.
The criterion has two failure modes and BOTH are triggered, so the resolution is robust to measurement choice. (1) The criterion's FALSE branch 'bitcoin is flat or lower over the window' is directly satisfied: bitcoin posted a NET LOSS on every reasonable measurement basis (window open-to-close -8.6%, close-to-close -2.0%, conference days -3.9%). (2) A fortiori it also fails the TRUE branch of exceeding the 10%-70% gains Lee cited around prior Consensus conferences (e.g. the +69% he attributed to the 2017 conference). The 'or the broad crypto market' alternative in the criterion does not rescue the claim: the broad market also fell, losing roughly $45bn in aggregate valuation over the same period. Evidence quality is high: primary Coinbase exchange candles for the price move, plus Lee's own contemporaneous concession, plus dated third-party reporting. No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
Tom Lee reckons that Bitcoin price will rally after Consensus Conference
FXStreet ·
Tom Lee: Next Week's Consensus Conference Could Push Bitcoin to All-Time Highs
NewsBTC ·
Bitcoin rally this week fails to materialize as New York conference brings more hype than substance
CNBC ·
Tom Lee Explains Why Consensus Failed to Spark the Bitcoin Rally
Bitcoinist ·
Bitcoin Catches Up at $8,500, Tom Lee Admits Wrong Prediction for Consensus 2018 Rally
CoinSpeaker ·
Evidence of what happened
Coinbase Exchange primary daily candles (BTC-USD) across the criterion's stated window 2018-05-11 to 2018-05-18. Window open (2018-05-11 open) $9,010.51; window close (2018-05-18 close) $8,238.51 = net -8.6%. Close-to-close basis: 2018-05-11 close $8,403.33 to 2018-05-18 close $8,238.51 = net -2.0%. Conference days only: 2018-05-14 open $8,686.10 to 2018-05-16 close $8,344.00 = -3.9%. Critically, the highest intraday print anywhere in the window was $9,010.51 on 2018-05-11, which is the window's own opening price — every subsequent day's high was lower ($8,658.57, $8,774.32, $8,880.01, $8,847.00, $8,500.00, $8,483.48, $8,280.00). There was therefore no rally of any magnitude at any point in the window.
Tom Lee's own public admission that the predicted rally did not occur: 'Crypto: #Consensus2018 rally did not happen, very disappointing.' The same report records that Lee had predicted bitcoin could gain 10-70% around Consensus 2018 based on prior-year conference behaviour, and that bitcoin instead declined about 10% during the three-day conference while the overall crypto market lost about $45 billion in valuation.
Contemporaneous reporting dated 2018-05-18 (the criterion's window end): bitcoin fell 3.25% to $8,255.20 and sat near session lows of $8,054 during the Consensus 2018 event; the article explicitly frames the predicted 'consensus pump' as having failed to materialise, and quotes Lee's pre-event forecast that 'we expect BTC and cryptocurrencies to behave similarly to prior years and rally during Consensus.'
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin/crypto rallies around the Consensus 2018 conference…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2018-05-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources