Full record
MissmarketsS&P 500 earnings grow about 13% in 2018.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“We are constructive on stocks in 2018, driven by earnings growth of +13% and slight P/E expansion, supported by strong global growth (tempered by rising core inflation).”
S&P 500 earnings grow about 13% in 2018.
- Made on
- 2018-01-11
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-03-31
Resolved true if full-year 2018 S&P 500 earnings per share grow between 10% and 16% versus full-year 2017 on a consistent basis (S&P Dow Jones Indices operating EPS, with reported EPS as a cross-check); a growth rate outside that band, in either direction, resolves false.
All sources agree in direction and magnitude: 2018 S&P 500 earnings growth came in around 20-22% on the S&P DJI basis the criterion names (operating +21.76%, as-reported +20.49%), driven largely by the Dec-2017 corporate tax cut. That is a MISS ON THE UPSIDE - actual growth was far stronger than the ~13% claimed - and the criterion is explicitly two-sided ('a growth rate outside that band, in either direction, resolves false'), so the later scoring stage should not treat the direction of the error as favorable. resolved_on is set to 2019-03-31 rather than the 2018-12-31 deadline because full-year 2018 EPS was only final once Q4 2018 reporting completed in Q1 2019; the measurement period itself ends 2018-12-31. The S&P DJI figures come from an archived capture of the live workbook (the live spglobal.com URL returns 403 to automated fetches; the canonical URL is given as the primary link and the Internet Archive capture that was actually parsed as archive_url). No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 rising to 3,025 this year as 'animal spirits' drive business spending
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P Dow Jones Indices 'S&P 500 Earnings and Estimate Report' (Howard Silverblatt, S&P Senior Index Analyst) - the source the criterion names. Trailing 12-month OPERATING EPS: 12/31/2018 = $151.60 vs 12/31/2017 = $124.51, i.e. +21.76% year over year. Trailing 12-month AS-REPORTED EPS (the criterion's cross-check): 12/31/2018 = $132.39 vs 12/31/2017 = $109.88, i.e. +20.49%. Both rates sit above the 10-16% band the criterion specifies. Figures are internally consistent with the same file's P/E columns (2506.85/151.60 = 16.54; 2506.85/132.39 = 18.94; 2673.61/124.51 = 21.47; 2673.61/109.88 = 24.33).
FactSet Earnings Insight, independent bottom-up aggregation: as of 2018-12-21 the estimated CY2018 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was 20.3%, which would be the index's highest annual earnings growth since 2010 - a separate methodology landing in the same low-20s range, well outside 10-16%.
Third-source cross-check (NYU Stern / Damodaran S&P earnings history, derived from S&P and Bloomberg): S&P 500 EPS 2017 = $124.94 rising to 2018 = $148.34, i.e. +18.7%. A fourth, multpl.com's inflation-adjusted series (constant June 2026 dollars), shows Dec-2017 $148.85 to Dec-2018 $175.98, i.e. +18.2% in real terms - nominal growth is higher still. Every series checked exceeds the 16% upper bound.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
S&P 500 earnings grow about 13% in 2018.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2018-01-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources