Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin's major low for 2018 is $9,000 — bitcoin does not fall materially below that level during 2018.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“We expect bitcoin's major low to be $9,000, and we would be aggressive buyers around that level. We view this $9,000 as the biggest buying opportunity in 2018.”
Bitcoin's major low for 2018 is $9,000 — bitcoin does not fall materially below that level during 2018.
- Made on
- 2018-01-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2018-12-31
Resolves TRUE if bitcoin's lowest traded price on major spot exchanges during calendar year 2018 is at or above roughly $9,000 — i.e. the year's low is set at about that level and bitcoin never sustains a break materially (more than ~10%) below $9,000 during 2018. Resolves FALSE if bitcoin trades materially below $9,000 at any point in 2018.
Criterion has an explicit FALSE trigger: 'Resolves FALSE if bitcoin trades materially below $9,000 at any point in 2018.' The evidence shows this trigger fired on 2018-02-02 (low $7,796.49, ~13.4% below $9,000), only fifteen days after the 2018-01-18 forecast, and the breach then deepened and persisted: the actual 2018 low was $3,191.30 on 2018-12-15, roughly 64.5% below the asserted major low, and bitcoin spent the final ~7.7 months of the year continuously below $9,000. Both the 'year's low set at about $9,000' clause and the 'never sustains a material break' clause are addressed and both fail on the data. resolved_on set to 2018-12-31, the close of the criterion's calendar-year observation window; noting for the record that the outcome became determinate as early as 2018-02-02. Caveat logged: figures come from cross-exchange composites (Yahoo CCC, CoinLore); single-venue prints for the December low vary somewhat in the literature (values near $3,122-$3,214 appear across sources), but every such variant sits far below $9,000, so venue choice cannot change the finding. No conflicting credible evidence found. Outcome value deliberately not assigned.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily OHLC, complete 2018 calendar year (365 bars). Bitcoin's lowest traded price of 2018 was $3,191.30 on 2018-12-15 — approximately 64.5% BELOW the $9,000 level asserted as the year's major low, not at or above it.
Same Yahoo 2018 daily series, breach timeline directly addressing the 'never sustains a break materially (more than ~10%) below $9,000' clause: first daily low under $9,000 was 2018-02-01 ($8,812.28); first daily low more than 10% below $9,000 (i.e. under $8,100) was 2018-02-02 ($7,796.49). 290 of 365 days closed below $9,000 and 244 of 365 days closed below $8,100. The last day bitcoin closed at or above $9,000 was 2018-05-10, after which it never regained the level for the remaining ~7.7 months of the year.
CoinLore independent historical aggregate reports a 2018 Bitcoin minimum of $3,163, corroborating the Yahoo yearly low of $3,191.30 and confirming the break far below $9,000.
Contemporaneous reporting of the February 2018 breakdown: bitcoin crashed through $6,000 during the sell-off, with the Yahoo daily bar for 2018-02-06 showing an intraday low of $6,048.26 and a close of $7,754 — a break roughly 33% below the $9,000 level within three weeks of the 2018-01-18 forecast.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's major low for 2018 is $9,000 — bitcoin does not f…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2018-01-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources