Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 falls about 4-5% within roughly a month of late August 2017.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“The S&P 500 is set for about a 4 percent to 5 percent decline”
The S&P 500 falls about 4-5% within roughly a month of late August 2017.
- Made on
- 2017-08-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.89
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2017-09-28
The S&P 500 closes at least 4% below its 2017-08-28 close (about 2,444, i.e. at or below roughly 2,346) on at least one trading day on or before 2017-09-28. A decline of 2%-4% = PARTIAL; no decline of that size = FALSE.
Measured strictly against the written criterion. Reference: 2017-08-28 close 2,444.24 (FRED and Yahoo agree exactly). Required for TRUE: at least one close at or below ~2,346.47 (-4%) on or before 2017-09-28 — did not occur. Required for PARTIAL: a decline of 2%-4%, i.e. a close at or below 2,395.36 — also did not occur. Maximum peak-to-trough move available in the window: the minimum close was 2,446.30 (+0.08% versus the reference, i.e. the index did not post a single lower close), and the minimum intraday print was 2,428.20 (-0.66%). The index instead finished the window at 2,510.06, +2.69%. Deepest drawdown by either measure is under 1%, far short of even the PARTIAL band. resolved_on set to the criterion's deadline (2017-09-28) because the outcome only became final when the window closed without a qualifying decline. Evidence is unanimous across two independent sources; no conflicting readings. Per instructions I am not assigning an outcome value here, but the measurements above are stated so the quantify stage can apply the rubric directly.
Sources
'The S&P 500 is set for about a 4 percent to 5 percent decline,' Tom Lee says
X (Twitter) — @thesheetztweetz (CNBC) ·
History is pointing to a 5% drop in the market over the next month
X (Twitter) — @fundstrat (Tom Lee) ·
Archived capture of twitter.com/fundstrat timeline
Wayback Machine ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED series SP500 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, data from S&P Dow Jones Indices) gives the 2017-08-28 reference close as 2,444.24. The 4% trigger level is therefore 2,346.47 and the 2% level is 2,395.36. The LOWEST close anywhere in the 2017-08-29 to 2017-09-28 window was 2,446.30 on 2017-08-29 — ABOVE the reference close, meaning the index never closed below its 2017-08-28 level on any trading day in the window.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily data independently reproduces every close in the window to the cent (2017-08-28 2,444.24; 2017-08-29 2,446.30; ... 2017-09-28 2,510.06) and adds intraday lows: the deepest intraday low of the entire window was 2,428.20 on 2017-08-29, just -0.66% below the reference close. Even on an intraday basis the decline never approached 2%, let alone 4%.
Rather than falling, the index rallied over the prediction window to a series of record closes: 2,500.23 on 2017-09-15 (first close above 2,500), 2,508.24 on 2017-09-20, and 2,510.06 on 2017-09-28 — a gain of +2.69% from the 2017-08-28 reference by the deadline.
Secondary corroboration of the 2,500 milestone date and level: Wikipedia's closing-milestones record lists the S&P 500's first close above 2,500 at 2,500.23 on 2017-09-15, matching FRED and Yahoo exactly.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.89- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 falls about 4-5% within roughly a month of late…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2017-08-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources