Full record
HiteconomyUS wage inflation accelerates over the next couple of years regardless of which party wins the 2016 election.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I think whether it's a Republican or Democratic president fiscal's loose, things gonna come, that's good for wages and that's good for inflation which helps S&P revenues”
US wage inflation accelerates over the next couple of years regardless of which party wins the 2016 election.
- Made on
- 2016-10-31
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-10-31
TRUE if, at some point on or before 2019-10-31, US average hourly earnings year-over-year growth prints above its October 2016 level (about 2.8%) AND a core inflation measure (core CPI or core PCE, year over year) also prints above its October 2016 level. Wages accelerate but inflation does not (or vice versa) = PARTIAL; neither exceeds its 2016 level = FALSE.
Both legs of the AND condition are met, and by wide margins on the wage leg. Wages: 2.78% (Oct 2016) -> 3.55% peak (Feb 2019). Core inflation: core CPI 2.21% -> 2.34% peak; core PCE 1.78% -> 2.04% peak. The two legs were simultaneously above their Oct 2016 levels as early as May 2018 (AHE +2.94%, core CPI +2.27%) and again around Nov-Dec 2018 (AHE +3.39/+3.49%, core CPI +2.22/+2.25%, core PCE +2.01/+2.04%). resolved_on is set to the deadline (window close) because the criterion is an 'at some point on or before' test and the full-window data confirms it; earliest simultaneous satisfaction was May 2018 data (published Jun 2018). CAVEAT: figures above are current-vintage (revised) FRED data pulled 2026. As-first-printed values point the same way and are not marginal on the wage leg — AHE printed 2.8% for Oct 2016 and peaked at a 3.4% print (Feb 2019); core CPI printed 2.1% for Oct 2016 and printed 2.4% in Jul 2018 and again Sep/Oct 2019; core PCE printed about 1.7% for Oct 2016 and reached 2.0% in 2018. The core-inflation leg is the narrower of the two (roughly 0.1-0.3pp of headroom) but is confirmed independently by both core CPI and core PCE. No credible contrary evidence found.
Sources
Tom Lee: Wage Growth Picking Up, Impacting The Market | Trading Nation
CNBC (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS baseline: average hourly earnings for all private employees rose 2.8% over the year ended October 2016 — matching the criterion's stated ~2.8% October 2016 reference level.
BLS/FRED series CES0500000003 (avg hourly earnings, total private). Computed YoY: Oct 2016 = +2.78%. Within the window the series rose well above that level, peaking at +3.55% in Feb 2019; it was above the Oct 2016 level continuously from Mar 2018 (+2.83%) through the Oct 2019 deadline (+3.18%). WAGE LEG SATISFIED.
BLS/FRED series CPILFESL (core CPI, all items less food and energy). Computed YoY: Oct 2016 = +2.21%. Exceeded within the window — May 2018 +2.27%, Jul 2018 +2.27%, and rising into the deadline: Aug 2019 +2.32%, Sep 2019 +2.33%, Oct 2019 +2.34% (window peak). CORE-INFLATION LEG SATISFIED on core CPI.
BEA/FRED series PCEPILFE (core PCE price index). Computed YoY: Oct 2016 = +1.78%. Exceeded within the window — Jul 2018 +2.00%, Nov 2018 +2.01%, Dec 2018 +2.04% (window peak). CORE-INFLATION LEG ALSO SATISFIED on the alternative core PCE measure.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US wage inflation accelerates over the next couple of years…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2016-10-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources