Full record
HiteconomyQ3 2016 marks the end of the corporate earnings recession, with sales growth turning positive after six declining quarters.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“We see 3Q16 as a positive catalyst, marking the end of the earnings recession. The bottom line, in our view, is that we are seeing the positive turn in sales. Central to our positive stance on equities in 2016, is the view that 3Q16 would mark the turning point for earnings (oil fade, USD fade, etc.) and indeed, 3Q16 is shaping up to be a key inflection point.”
Q3 2016 marks the end of the corporate earnings recession, with sales growth turning positive after six declining quarters.
- Made on
- 2016-10-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2016-12-09
TRUE if final reported S&P 500 aggregate Q3 2016 revenue grows year over year versus Q3 2015 (a positive print, ending the run of declining quarters) AND S&P 500 aggregate earnings growth turns positive in Q3 2016 or the immediately following quarter, per S&P Dow Jones Indices / FactSet final reported figures once Q3 2016 reporting completes. Sales positive but earnings still contracting through Q4 2016 = PARTIAL.
Both conditions in the criterion are met on final reported FactSet figures. Revenue: Q3 2016 grew year over year, ending a run of exactly six declining quarters (Q1 2015 through Q2 2016), which matches the claim's 'after six declining quarters' precisely. Earnings: Q3 2016 turned positive (last prior positive quarter was Q1 2015, so five quarters of declines ended), and Q4 2016, the criterion's fallback quarter, was also positive. resolved_on set to 2016-12-09, the date of the first FactSet Earnings Insight I verified that reports Q3 2016 in completed-quarter terms; the Dec 16, Dec 23 and Jan 6 editions restate the same facts. Transparency caveat: the precise Q3 2016 magnitudes (commonly cited around +3% earnings and around +2.7% revenue) sit in FactSet's chart images rather than the PDF text layer, so I have not verified those specific numbers and have deliberately not asserted them; the criterion is directional (positive versus negative print) and the directional evidence is explicit and repeated across four separate FactSet reports. No outcome value assigned. No conflicting evidence; nothing requiring human review.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
FactSet Earnings Insight, December 9, 2016 (Q3 2016 reporting complete): 'If the index reports earnings growth for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen year-over-year growth in earnings for two consecutive quarters since Q4 2014 and Q1 2015.' The 'two consecutive quarters' framing establishes that Q3 2016 itself posted positive year-over-year earnings growth.
FactSet Earnings Insight, December 23, 2016, on revenues: 'If the index reports revenue growth for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen year-over-year growth in sales for two consecutive quarters since Q3 2014 (4.6%) and Q4 2014 (0.5%).' This establishes that Q3 2016 sales grew year over year, and that the immediately preceding run of sales declines was Q1 2015 through Q2 2016, exactly six consecutive declining quarters, matching the claim's wording.
FactSet Earnings Insight, December 23, 2016, on the earnings leg: 'Earnings Growth: Second Straight Quarter of Year-Over-Year Earnings Growth (3.2%) ... since Q4 2014 (4.6%) and Q1 2015 (0.5%)', dating the last positive earnings quarter before Q3 2016 to Q1 2015, i.e. five consecutive quarters of earnings declines ended by Q3 2016.
FactSet Earnings Insight, January 6, 2017, restates the same two structural facts for Q4 2016 (estimated earnings growth 3.2% would be the second straight quarter of growth; estimated revenue growth 4.8% would be the second straight quarter of sales growth and the highest since Q1 2012), confirming the criterion's alternative earnings leg, positive growth in the quarter immediately following Q3 2016, also held.
Contemporaneous corroboration from the same speaker's own remarks on the record date: CNBC, October 26, 2016, quotes Lee saying 'Overall, it's been actually one of the better earnings seasons. Now we finally have positive earnings growth.'
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Q3 2016 marks the end of the corporate earnings recession,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2016-10-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources