Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 sets a new record high, closing above its May 2015 record close of 2,130.82.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“We're in a much better position to sustain new highs.”
The S&P 500 sets a new record high, closing above its May 2015 record close of 2,130.82.
- Made on
- 2016-04-22
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2016-07-11
The S&P 500 closes above its prior record close of 2,130.82 on at least one trading day on or before 2019-04-22. Any daily close above that level counts; no timing-miss penalty, since Avow imposed the horizon.
Criterion satisfied on 2016-07-11 (close 2,137.16 > 2,130.82), well inside the 2019-04-22 horizon; the criterion's 'any daily close above that level counts, no timing-miss penalty' language is not even load-bearing here given the margin. resolved_on is the date the criterion was first met. No outcome value assigned. Evidence from index data and two independent secondary sources all agree; no conflict, nothing requiring human review.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
First S&P 500 close above the prior record close of 2,130.82 came on 2016-07-11 at 2,137.16 (intraday high 2,143.16). Verified by scanning every trading day from 2015-05-22 through 2016-07-31: 2016-07-11 is the first close above the threshold, followed immediately by 2,152.14 (07-12), 2,152.43 (07-13), 2,163.75 (07-14).
Wikipedia's closing-milestones page independently states the 2,130.82 all-time closing high of May 21, 2015 'was not surpassed until July 11, 2016', and its milestone table records 2,137.16 on that date.
Contemporaneous press, Fortune carrying Reuters, dated 2016-07-11: 'The S&P 500 Just Hit A Record High With Big Gains Across the Board', reporting the index up 7.11 points at 2,137.01 in early trade as it cleared the May 2015 peak.
Deadline context: the qualifying close occurred 2016-07-11, about 2 years and 9 months before the 2019-04-22 deadline, so the outcome does not depend on any judgement about the horizon.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 sets a new record high, closing above its May 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2016-04-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources