Full record
MissmarketsCorporate share buybacks resume once the Q4 2015 earnings season concludes.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I think the dollar headwinds are fading. And I think buybacks resume after we get the earnings.”
Corporate share buybacks resume once the Q4 2015 earnings season concludes.
- Made on
- 2016-01-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2016-09-28
S&P 500 share repurchases pick up once the Q4 2015 reporting season ends — operationalized as S&P Dow Jones Indices' S&P 500 gross buyback total for Q2 2016 exceeding the Q1 2016 total.
Cleanest of the five. The criterion names exactly one comparison — S&P Dow Jones Indices' S&P 500 gross buyback total for Q2 2016 versus Q1 2016 — and S&P DJI's own releases settle it: $127.5bn vs $161.39bn, a 21.0% decline. No frequency, vintage or definitional ambiguity, and no conflicting evidence found. Both figures come from the index provider named in the criterion. The Q4 2016 release independently reproduces the Q1 and Q2 2016 numbers, so the two sources corroborate rather than merely repeat a single print. Wider context, not part of the criterion but relevant to the underlying claim: buybacks declined in each of the three quarters following Q1 2016 and the full year came in 6.3% below 2015.
Sources
2016 rout NOT end of stock bull market: Tom Lee
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P Dow Jones Indices, 'S&P 500 Buybacks Fall 21% in Q2 2016' (September 28, 2016): S&P 500 share repurchases totalled $127.5 billion in Q2 2016, 'a 21.0% decrease from the $161.4 billion reported in Q1 2016' and a 3.1% decrease from the $131.6 billion reported in Q2 2015. Q2 2016 therefore did NOT exceed Q1 2016. The release also notes issues making significant share-count reductions fell to 106 in Q2 2016 from 147 in Q1 2016.
S&P Dow Jones Indices full-2016 confirmation (Q4 2016 buyback release, March 22, 2017), giving the complete quarterly sequence: Q1 2016 $161.39bn, Q2 2016 $127.5bn, Q3 2016 $112.2bn, Q4 2016 $135.3bn. Full-year 2016 buybacks were $536.4bn, down 6.3% from $572.2bn in 2015 (2015 quarters: Q1 $144.13bn, Q2 $131.56bn, Q3 $150.58bn, Q4 $145.9bn). Buybacks fell for three consecutive quarters after Q1 2016 rather than picking up once the Q4 2015 reporting season ended.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Corporate share buybacks resume once the Q4 2015 earnings s…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2016-01-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources