Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market is still in a bull market twelve months from now (i.e. in September 2015).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Twelve months out I think we're still in a bull market.”
The US stock market is still in a bull market twelve months from now (i.e. in September 2015).
- Made on
- 2014-09-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2015-09-23
The US equity bull market is intact on 2015-09-23 — operationalized as the S&P 500 not having closed 20% or more below its prior all-time closing high at any point between 2014-09-23 and 2015-09-23.
The written, operationalized criterion (no close 20% or more below the prior all-time closing high between 2014-09-23 and 2015-09-23) is satisfied: the worst drawdown was -12.35%. No conflicting evidence. Transparency note for the scoring stage, NOT a change to the resolution: the underlying plain-language claim ('still in a bull market') is softer than the mechanical 20% test, and as of the deadline the index had just come through its first 10%+ correction in roughly four years and was sitting ~9% below its high with the May 2015 peak never subsequently exceeded until July 2016. A narrative reading is therefore more contestable than the mechanical one. The record's own explicit operationalization governs, so this is recorded as a note only and no needs_human_review flag is proposed.
Sources
Forget October spooks, Dow 18K coming: Lee
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Programmatic evaluation of the exact written test over the full window 2014-09-23 to 2015-09-23 using the daily ^GSPC closing series: the deepest close-basis drawdown from the running all-time closing high was -12.35%, on 2015-08-25 (close 1,867.61) measured against the prior all-time closing high of 2,130.82 set on 2015-05-21. A 20% decline from that high would have required a close at or below 1,704.66, which never occurred. No 20%+ drawdown at any point in the window.
The S&P 500's all-time closing high of 2,130.82 on 2015-05-21 - the reference peak for the drawdown test - is independently confirmed in the S&P 500 closing-milestones record, which describes it as an all-time closing high.
Contemporaneous characterization of the August 2015 selloff as an approximately 12% correction running 2015-05-21 to 2015-08-25 - a correction, not a bear market (the 20%+ threshold was not reached).
SEC staff research note on the 2015-08-24 equity market volatility episode (the deepest point of the selloff), documenting the extent of the August 2015 decline from official market-structure data.
On the resolution date itself, 2015-09-23, the S&P 500 closed at 1,938.76 - about 9.01% below the 2,130.82 May high, i.e. in correction territory but well short of the 20% bear-market threshold the criterion specifies.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market is still in a bull market twelve months…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2014-09-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources