Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 rises through 1,800 and on toward 1,900 within the next six to twelve months (i.e. by 2014-08-08).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I think we'll ultimately slice through those ... pretty easily,”
The S&P 500 rises through 1,800 and on toward 1,900 within the next six to twelve months (i.e. by 2014-08-08).
- Made on
- 2013-08-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2014-05-23
'Slice through those' is read as clearing both referenced levels. TRUE if the S&P 500 closes above 1,800 and subsequently reaches 1,900 or higher at any point between 2013-08-08 and 2014-08-08. FALSE if the index fails to reach 1,900 within the window.
Both legs of the criterion are satisfied inside the window, and the two natural readings of 'reaches 1,900 or higher at any point' agree in direction, so there is no interpretive ambiguity. Under the literal 'at any point' (touch) reading the criterion completes on 2014-05-13 (high 1,902.17); under a stricter close-only reading it completes on 2014-05-23 (close 1,900.53). resolved_on is set to 2014-05-23, the later of the two, so the resolution holds under either reading. The 1,800 close precondition was met first, on 2013-11-22 (1,804.76), preserving the criterion's required ordering (close above 1,800 THEN reach 1,900). Price-index levels only; no dividend/total-return adjustment is relevant to a level-based claim. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
S&P 1,900 possible in 12 months: JPMorgan's Lee
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 daily OHLC series (^GSPC) for the full 2013-08-08 to 2014-08-08 window: index closed at 1,697.48 on 2013-08-08 (the date the claim was made), first CLOSED above 1,800 on 2013-11-22 at 1,804.76, first touched 1,900 INTRADAY on 2014-05-13 (session high 1,902.17), and first CLOSED at/above 1,900 on 2014-05-23 at 1,900.53. Highest close inside the window was 1,987.98 on 2014-07-24. Both referenced levels were cleared with roughly three months of the twelve-month window still to run.
Wikipedia 'Closing milestones of the S&P 500' milestone table independently confirms the two threshold dates: first close above 1,800 on 2013-11-22 at 1,804.76, and first close above 1,900 on 2014-05-23 at 1,900.53. Same table shows 1,850 first closed on 2014-02-27 (1,854.29) and 2,000 on 2014-08-26 (2,000.02), i.e. the index kept advancing past 1,900 before the 2014-08-08 deadline.
Contemporaneous CNBC/NBC News report on the first intraday break of 1,900, dated Tuesday 2014-05-13: 'the S&P 500 crossing the 1,900-point barrier for the first time'; the index 'ended marginally ahead at 1,897.45, falling back after rising through the 1,900 milestone in the morning.' Confirms the 1,900 level was reached (intraday) on 2014-05-13, ten days before the first close above it.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 rises through 1,800 and on toward 1,900 within…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2013-08-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources