Full record
HitmarketsMoney put into US stocks in late July 2013 shows a profit by the end of 2013.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Stocks are trading at barely 14 times forward earnings, when they should be closer to 16-17 times so there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about owning stocks here. Putting money to work here should be profitable by year-end.”
Money put into US stocks in late July 2013 shows a profit by the end of 2013.
- Made on
- 2013-07-26
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2013-12-31
TRUE if the S&P 500's final close of 2013 is above its close on 2013-07-26 — i.e. a long US equity position opened at the statement date is in profit at year-end. FALSE if the year-end close is at or below the 2013-07-26 close.
Deadline 2013-12-31. The criterion pins the entry point to the S&P 500 close on the statement date (1,691.65) and the exit to the final close of 2013 (1,848.36); year-end close exceeds the entry close by 9.26%. Worth noting for the next stage that the path was not monotonic - the index dipped to roughly 1,646 in late August 2013 and again to about 1,656 in early October during the government-shutdown episode, both below the 1,691.65 entry - but the criterion tests the year-end close only, and on that test the margin is large and unambiguous. Statement-date and year-end levels are each confirmed by a second independent source. No conflicting evidence, no needs_human_review condition.
Sources
JPMorgan raises ceiling on Wall Street's year-end forecasts
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on the statement date 2013-07-26 was 1,691.65 (intraday high 1,691.85); the final close of 2013 on 12-31 was 1,848.36. A long position opened at the 2013-07-26 close was therefore up 156.71 points, or +9.26%, on a price basis at year-end (dividends would add further, so the direction is unaffected by the total-return-versus-price-return choice). Both endpoints come from the same Yahoo Finance chart API series covering 2013-07-26 to 2014-01-02.
Statement-date level independently corroborated by FactSet Earnings Insight dated 2013-07-26, p.1, which cites the prior session's (Thursday 2013-07-25) S&P 500 close of 1,690.25 - consistent with the 1,691.65 close on 07-26 itself.
Year-end level independently corroborated by CNBC's 2013-12-31 market report: the S&P 500 closed 2013 at a record 1,848.36, up 29.6% for the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Money put into US stocks in late July 2013 shows a profit b…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2013-07-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources