Full record
25% righteconomyBoth the US and Europe see better growth in the second half of 2013, putting Wall Street in a position to raise its 2014 earnings estimates.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
25% righteconomy“This has been a better bull than expected in 2013. … One of the positive takeaways from the second quarter has been better commentary regarding the Europe area. And this adds to the mosaic of generally improving Euro-area economic data points. With both the U.S. and Europe expected to see better growth in the second half, we believe the Street will be in a position to raise 2014 earnings.”
Both the US and Europe see better growth in the second half of 2013, putting Wall Street in a position to raise its 2014 earnings estimates.
- Made on
- 2013-07-26
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2013-12-31
TRUE if both legs hold: (a) real GDP growth in 2H2013 exceeds 1H2013 growth for the United States and for the euro area (annualized, official statistical-agency data), and (b) the bottom-up consensus 2014 S&P 500 EPS estimate on 2013-12-31 is higher than on 2013-07-26. FALSE if either region fails to accelerate in 2H2013, or if the 2014 consensus EPS estimate is flat or lower at year-end.
Deadline 2013-12-31. The criterion is an explicit conjunction and the two legs came out in opposite directions, so the record is fully determinate without needing a judgement call. Leg (a) HOLDS for both regions on the written half-over-half annualized test: US 2.54% -> 3.50%, euro area 0.60% -> 1.00%. Leg (b) FAILS: the bottom-up consensus CY2014 S&P 500 EPS estimate went DOWN from $122.14 to $119.83 (-1.89%) over the period, rather than up - Wall Street cut its 2014 earnings estimates over 2H2013 instead of raising them. Since the criterion states FALSE if the 2014 consensus EPS estimate is flat or lower at year-end, the conjunction fails on leg (b) regardless of how leg (a) is read. TWO CAVEATS RECORDED FOR THE NEXT STAGE, neither of which changes the determination: (1) The euro-area leg is the narrow one. It passes on the half-over-half test the criterion specifies, but quarter-by-quarter momentum actually PEAKED in 2013Q2 (+0.6%) and slowed through H2 (+0.3%, +0.2%); H1 only looks weaker because it contains the negative Q1 that ended the euro-area recession. A reader testing 'momentum improved through H2' rather than the written half-over-half test could reach the opposite view on this leg. This is moot here because leg (b) is decisive. (2) The forward 12-month EPS estimate DID rise over the period, $116.93 (2013-07-26) to $119.66 (2013-12-27). That is not the measure the criterion names, and the rise is largely mechanical - a rolling 12-month window advancing into later, higher-earning quarters - so it must not be substituted for the calendar-year 2014 consensus figure that the criterion specifies. Sources are mutually consistent; no conflicting credible evidence found. No needs_human_review condition.
Sources
JPMorgan raises ceiling on Wall Street's year-end forecasts
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
LEG (a), UNITED STATES - accelerated. BEA NIPA Table 1.1.1 (Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rates, current vintage last revised 2026-07-30, series A191RL-Q): 2013Q1 +4.0%, 2013Q2 +1.1%, 2013Q3 +3.5%, 2013Q4 +3.5%. That is 1H2013 = +2.54% annualized (simple average of the two SAAR readings +2.55%) versus 2H2013 = +3.50% annualized. US second-half growth exceeded first-half growth by about 0.95pp.
LEG (a), UNITED STATES - vintage robustness check. BEA's contemporaneous advance estimate released 2014-01-30 reported real GDP rising at a 4.1% annual rate in 2013Q3 and a 3.2% annual rate in 2013Q4, both far above the first-half readings published at that time. So the direction of the US result (2H faster than 1H) holds in the vintage available to a reader at the deadline as well as in the current revised vintage.
LEG (a), EURO AREA - accelerated, but narrowly. Eurostat namq_10_gdp (GDP at market prices B1GQ, chain-linked volumes, percentage change on previous period, seasonally and calendar adjusted): 2013Q1 -0.3%, 2013Q2 +0.6%, 2013Q3 +0.3%, 2013Q4 +0.2%. 1H2013 cumulative +0.30% (+0.60% annualized) versus 2H2013 cumulative +0.50% (+1.00% annualized). Identical values returned for both the EA20 and the EA19 aggregate, so the result does not depend on which euro-area definition is used.
LEG (b), 2014 CONSENSUS EPS - DECLINED, did not rise. FactSet Earnings Insight dated 2013-07-26 (the statement date itself), chart 'Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates' on p.19: CY2014 bottom-up EPS estimate = $122.14 (CY2013 estimate = $110.18). Same report p.1 gives the forward 12-month EPS estimate as $116.93 against a 1,690.25 index close.
LEG (b) endpoint, last FactSet Earnings Insight published in 2013 (dated 2013-12-27, four days before the deadline), chart 'Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates' on p.12: CY2014 bottom-up EPS estimate = $119.83 (CY2013 estimate = $108.90). That is a fall of $2.31, or -1.89%, from the $122.14 reading on the statement date.
LEG (b) bracketing check on the other side of year-end. FactSet Earnings Insight dated 2014-01-03, chart on p.18: CY2014 bottom-up EPS estimate = $119.82 (CY2013 = $108.91), i.e. -1.90% versus the statement date. Because FactSet published weekly, the 2013-12-27 and 2014-01-03 reports bracket the 2013-12-31 deadline tightly and both sit about $2.3 BELOW the 2013-07-26 level, so the direction of leg (b) does not depend on which side of year-end is used as the endpoint.
Corrections
- statement medium: Source is a written research note, not a TV appearance.
Effect on the score
+1.12- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Both the US and Europe see better growth in the second half…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2013-07-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources