Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 is range-bound in the first half of 2013 and stands below 1,400 at mid-year 2013.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“We see risks building in 1H and, thus, expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound in 1H13 with a mid-year target of less than 1400”
The S&P 500 is range-bound in the first half of 2013 and stands below 1,400 at mid-year 2013.
- Made on
- 2012-12-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2013-06-28
TRUE if the S&P 500's close on the last trading day of the first half of 2013 (2013-06-28) is below 1,400; FALSE if it is at or above 1,400. The 'range-bound' framing is descriptive; the mid-year level is the operative test.
Directly on the written criterion (operative test = close on 2013-06-28 below 1,400): the close was 1,606.28, i.e. 206.28 points / 14.7% ABOVE the 1,400 line. The miss is not marginal and not path-sensitive — the criterion's threshold was never approached at any point in the half. The descriptive 'range-bound' framing, which the criterion explicitly treats as non-operative, also fails on the record: the index rose from the 2012 year-end close of 1,426.19 to 1,606.28, +12.6% over the half, and set repeated record closes from 2013-03-28 onward (surpassing its October 2007 record). No conflicting evidence found. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
JPMORGAN'S TOM LEE: Stocks Will Go Down Before Going Up In 2013
Yahoo Finance / Business Insider ·
Evidence of what happened
Yahoo Finance chart API, ^GSPC daily closes around mid-2013: 2013-06-25 = 1,588.03; 2013-06-26 = 1,603.26; 2013-06-27 = 1,613.20; 2013-06-28 = 1,606.28; 2013-07-01 = 1,614.96. The close on 2013-06-28, the last trading day of the first half of 2013, was 1,606.28.
Contemporaneous H1/Q2 2013 review confirming the S&P 500 closed at 1,606.28 on Friday 2013-06-28 (down 6.92 points on the day), capping a volatile quarter in which the S&P 500 gained 2.4%, the Dow rose 2.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 4.2%.
Yahoo Finance chart API, ^GSPC early-January 2013 daily data establishing the H1 2013 floor: lowest close of the first half was 1,457.15 on 2013-01-08 (intraday low 1,451.64); the lowest intraday print of H1 2013 was 1,426.19 on 2013-01-02. The index therefore never traded below 1,400 at any point in the first half of 2013, let alone closed there.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 is range-bound in the first half of 2013 and st…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2012-12-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources