Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 finishes 2012 strongly and the rally carries into January and February of 2013.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Ultimately, we see the S&P 500 finishing the year strongly. And, arguably, this should carry into January/February of 2013.”
The S&P 500 finishes 2012 strongly and the rally carries into January and February of 2013.
- Made on
- 2012-12-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2013-02-28
TRUE if both legs hold: (a) the S&P 500's final close of 2012 is above its 2012-12-27 close ('finishing the year strongly'), and (b) its close on 2013-02-28 is above its final close of 2012 (the rally carries into January/February). FALSE if either leg fails.
Both legs of the criterion hold on its own operational test. Leg (b) holds comfortably (+6.20%). Leg (a) holds only narrowly and path-dependently, and the quantify stage should see this explicitly: after the 2012-12-27 reference close of 1,418.10 the index FELL to 1,402.43 on 2012-12-28, and cleared the reference level only via a single 1.69% fiscal-cliff-headline rally on the last session (2012-12-31), finishing 8.09 points / 0.57% above the reference. Whether that qualifies as 'finishing the year strongly' in spirit is a judgment the criterion resolves mechanically in favor of the claim, but the margin is thin enough to be worth surfacing. I could not locate a contemporaneous news article stating the 2013-02-28 close verbatim; that figure rests on the Yahoo Finance index data above, which is internally consistent across adjacent sessions. No conflicting evidence found. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
As Market Optimism Grows, Is It Time to Get Out?
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Leg (a). Yahoo Finance chart API, ^GSPC daily closes: 2012-12-24 = 1,426.66; 2012-12-26 = 1,419.83; 2012-12-27 = 1,418.10; 2012-12-28 = 1,402.43; 2012-12-31 = 1,426.19. The final close of 2012 (1,426.19) was above the 2012-12-27 close (1,418.10) by 8.09 points, +0.57%.
CNBC market wrap for 2012-12-31, 'S&P 500 Soars 13% in 2012, Logs Best Gain in 3 Years': the S&P 500 rallied 23.76 points, or 1.69%, to finish at 1,426.19 — its biggest final-day gain since 1974 — snapping a five-day losing streak on fiscal-cliff optimism. Full-year 2012: S&P 500 +13.41%. (Content confirmed via search-result extraction; direct fetch returned HTTP 403.)
Leg (b). Yahoo Finance chart API, ^GSPC daily closes: 2013-02-25 = 1,487.85; 2013-02-26 = 1,496.94; 2013-02-27 = 1,515.99; 2013-02-28 = 1,514.68; 2013-03-01 = 1,518.20. The 2013-02-28 close (1,514.68) was above the final 2012 close (1,426.19) by 88.49 points, +6.20%.
Corrections
- statement medium: Source is a written research report ('Lee said in a report'), not a TV appearance; 'column' is the closest written-analysis bucket.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 finishes 2012 strongly and the rally carries in…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2012-12-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources