Full record
MissenergyWithin a year (maybe a year and a half), Venezuela will become a net oil importer, with full societal collapse following over the next few years, because without majors like Chevron it will lose oil-production capacity.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“we're going to see Venezuela fall into the errors of being the oil importer within a year, maybe a year and a half.”
Within a year (maybe a year and a half), Venezuela will become a net oil importer, with full societal collapse following over the next few years, because without majors like Chevron it will lose oil-production capacity.
- Made on
- 2024-06-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-12
Resolved TRUE if by ~2025-12-12 Venezuela had become a net oil importer (lost crude-production capacity). Resolved FALSE if Venezuela was still producing/exporting meaningful crude.
Miss on the core falsifiable claim (net oil importer within ~18 months): output actually rose. The broader 'full societal collapse over the next very few years' is a longer/vaguer horizon and is not what this record resolves.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Source prefixes the claim with 'almost certainly barring a significant change in policy'. verbatim_marker must hold the estimative-confidence phrase, not the outcome timeframe.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Within a year (maybe a year and a half), Venezuela will bec…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-06-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources