Full record
MisssocietyWithin a year, Ukraine will lose the capacity to feed its own population and become a food importer (its 2023 winter-wheat crop being its last sizable harvest to reach international markets).
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misssociety“Ukraine will lose the capacity to provide for its own population and become a food importer within the year.”
Within a year, Ukraine will lose the capacity to feed its own population and become a food importer (its 2023 winter-wheat crop being its last sizable harvest to reach international markets).
- Made on
- 2023-07-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-07-28
Resolved TRUE if by ~2024-07-28 Ukraine had ceased to be a significant agricultural exporter and become a net food importer. Resolved FALSE if Ukraine remained a major grain exporter able to feed itself.
Clear miss: Ukraine's export capacity held up (and rose) rather than collapsing within the year; the 2023 crop was not its last sizable export crop.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Ukraine remained a top-5 world grain exporter in MY2023/24 and into 2024/25. By Oct 2024 it had exported 12.5 Mt for the new season (up from 7.7 Mt a year earlier); USDA/CSIS document continued large wheat and corn exports via a re-opened Black Sea corridor. Ukraine did NOT become a food importer.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Within a year, Ukraine will lose the capacity to feed its o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources