Full record
MisssocietyWithin about a year, Ukraine will go from a major agricultural exporter to a net food importer on the verge of at least a regional famine.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misssociety“A country that used to be one of the world's major bread baskets going to become a net food importer on the verge of at least a regional famine in the not too distant future.”
Within about a year, Ukraine will go from a major agricultural exporter to a net food importer on the verge of at least a regional famine.
- Made on
- 2023-06-07
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-06-07
Ukraine becomes a net food importer and faces at least a regional famine condition within roughly a year of mid-2023.
Resolved as not-occurred on both prongs of the criterion. By the 2024-06-07 deadline (~1 year after mid-2023) Ukraine had NOT become a net food importer (it remained a multi-billion-dollar net agri-food exporter) and did NOT face a regional famine (food prices fell; worst-case scenario did not materialize). Production/exports declined but the directional claim (exporter→net importer + famine) was contradicted. Evidence is consistent across reputable sources (Kyiv Independent/ministry data, CSIS, IFPRI, USDA FAS).
Sources
The Russians Go Scorched Earth: Destroying a Critical Dam For Crimea || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Ukraine remained a major net food EXPORTER through the prediction window, not a net importer. Agri-food exports were ~$22 billion in 2023 and rose to $24.6 billion in 2024 (59% of total exports; agri-food trade turnover $32.2B in 2024 of which $24.6B exports). Ukraine continued as one of the world's top grain/oilseed exporters.
No famine — regional or otherwise — materialized in Ukraine. Although MY2023/24 exports fell ~30% vs. the prior year and harvested area dropped sharply, global food prices DECLINED into 2024 (FAO reported a three-year low by January 2024) partly thanks to continued Ukrainian exports; the feared worst-case food-crisis scenario 'did not materialize.'
USDA/FAS and IFPRI assessments two years on confirm Ukraine adapted export routes (Greater Odesa ports, EU solidarity lanes) and sustained large agricultural shipments — e.g. a wartime-record 5.2 million tonnes in February 2024 — keeping its net-exporter status intact.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Within about a year, Ukraine will go from a major agricultu…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources