Prediction record
HitpoliticsDonald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitpolitics“Donald Trump is so solid with his base that he's going to get the nomination”
Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
- Made on
- 2023-06-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.99
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-12
Donald Trump secures the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination.
Criterion ('Trump secures the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination') is unambiguously satisfied. Clinched as presumptive nominee 2024-03-12; formally nominated 2024-07-15, both within the deadline. resolved_on set to the clinch date (2024-03-12). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
How Will Donald Trump's New Indictment(s) Impact the Election? || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Donald Trump clinched the 2024 Republican presidential nomination on 12 March 2024, surpassing the 1,215-delegate threshold with wins in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state, becoming the presumptive nominee. Nikki Haley, his last major rival, had suspended her campaign on 6 March 2024.
Trump was formally nominated by roll-call vote of state delegations at the Republican National Convention on 15 July 2024 (Milwaukee), officially making him the GOP's 2024 presidential nominee; he selected J.D. Vance as running mate. This is before the record's 2024-07-15 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.99- Confidence
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.99
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources