Prediction record
50% outcomepoliticsTrump will win roughly 40% (about twice the ~20% nomination threshold) of the Republican primary vote in the 2024 contest.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
50% outcomepolitics“he's probably gonna get twice that”
Trump will win roughly 40% (about twice the ~20% nomination threshold) of the Republican primary vote in the 2024 contest.
- Made on
- 2023-06-13
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-11-05
Trump receives approximately 40% (range ~35-45%) of aggregate Republican primary vote share in the 2024 GOP nomination contest.
Criterion sought Trump at ~40% (range ~35–45%) of the aggregate Republican primary vote. The actual aggregate share was ~76.4%, far outside (above) the predicted range, so the specific numeric prediction is contradicted by the compiled results. The number is depressed-then-inflated by Haley's early-March exit (much of the calendar uncontested), which the quantify stage may weigh, but the aggregate figure is unambiguous. Resolvable; resolved_on set to 2024-11-05 (close of the deadline window; underlying primary data complete by mid-2024). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
How Will Donald Trump's New Indictment(s) Impact the Election? || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Aggregate 2024 Republican presidential primary popular vote (per compiled state results): total ~22,264,875 votes cast. Donald Trump received ~17,015,756 votes = 76.42% of the aggregate primary vote. Nikki Haley got ~4,381,799 (19.68%), Ron DeSantis ~1.59%, all others combined under ~3%. Trump's ~76% aggregate share is far above the predicted ~40% (range ~35–45%).
Context: Haley suspended her campaign on 6 March 2024 after Super Tuesday, so most of the primary calendar was effectively uncontested, inflating Trump's aggregate share. Even so, Haley continued to draw meaningful protest votes in later primaries (e.g. ~20% in Maryland, ~18% in Nebraska), but Trump's overall aggregate share remained roughly three-quarters of all votes cast — nearly double the ~40% the prediction specified.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Verified against cached transcript mEJY6C-IAS0.normalized.json: full_text reads 'and he's probably gonna get twice that' (subject = Trump). The record's verbatim mis-transcribed 'he's' as 'we're' (the 'we're' variant is absent from the transcript). Aligning verbatim with the actual auto_caption; the record's own context field already uses 'he's'. Meaning unchanged.
- horizon type: No explicit deadline was stated by Zeihan; the deadline is derived from the 'references to an election/event' rule (2024 GOP primary contest), which is an inferred horizon. Sibling records from the same video correctly use type='inferred'. Deadline value 2024-11-05 unchanged (acceptable conservative bound).
Score contribution
+2.46- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Trump will win roughly 40% (about twice the ~20% nomination…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources