Full record
MisspoliticsThe Democrats (Biden) will win the 2024 US election in a landslide, even flipping normally-Republican states such as Texas.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misspolitics“it's going to be a Wipeout”
The Democrats (Biden) will win the 2024 US election in a landslide, even flipping normally-Republican states such as Texas.
- Made on
- 2023-06-13
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-11-05
The Democratic ticket wins the 2024 presidential election by a large/landslide margin, including flipping states such as Texas.
Criterion required a Democratic landslide win including flipping states such as Texas. Every element is contradicted: the Democratic ticket lost (Electoral College 312–226 for Trump), there was no Democratic landslide, and Texas did not flip (Trump won it). The prediction's named subject, Biden, also did not remain the nominee (withdrew July 2024; Harris ran). Cleanly resolvable against the prediction on official results. resolved_on = Election Day 2024-11-05. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
How Will Donald Trump's New Indictment(s) Impact the Election? || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Result of the 2024 US presidential election: Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris, winning 312 electoral votes to 226. The Democratic ticket LOST the election — the opposite of a Democratic landslide. (Joe Biden withdrew on 21 July 2024; Harris became the Democratic nominee.) Trump also won the national popular vote.
No Texas flip: Texas was carried by Trump, and Trump flipped six states that had gone Democratic in 2020 (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). The 'normally-Republican states such as Texas' that the prediction said Democrats would flip remained Republican.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Democrats (Biden) will win the 2024 US election in a la…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources