Full record
HitgeopoliticsSweden will join NATO within about a year (by ~2024-05-12), even if Erdogan wins re-election.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“even if you know erwan walks away with this election again we're probably going to see Sweden pretty soon”
Sweden will join NATO within about a year (by ~2024-05-12), even if Erdogan wins re-election.
- Made on
- 2023-05-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-07
Sweden formally accedes to NATO by roughly mid-2024.
Criterion ('Sweden formally accedes to NATO by roughly mid-2024') is met: formal accession (deposit of instrument) occurred 2024-03-07, about two months before the explicit 2024-05-12 deadline. The conditional clause 'even if Erdogan wins re-election' is satisfied — Erdogan won Turkey's runoff on 28 May 2023, and Turkey subsequently ratified Sweden's accession (Jan 2024), after which Sweden acceded. No outcome value (o) assigned per instructions; scoring is a later stage.
Sources
Turkey's Presidential Elections: A Turning Point for Turkish Politics || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NATO official news: Sweden became NATO's 32nd member on 7 March 2024 upon depositing its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the U.S. government in Washington DC. This is within the prediction's ~mid-2024 (deadline 2024-05-12) window.
CNN: Sweden officially joined NATO on 7 March 2024 as the alliance's 32nd member, ending centuries of neutrality; flag raised at NATO HQ in Brussels on 11 March 2024.
Arms Control Association corroborates Sweden's accession in March 2024 as 32nd member.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Sweden will join NATO within about a year (by ~2024-05-12),…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources