Full record
50% rightgeopoliticsTurkey will ratify Finland's NATO membership by mid-April 2023 and ratify Sweden's within about two months thereafter.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
50% rightgeopolitics“by the end of next week turkey will have voted on whether or not to let the Finns into NATO and a vote on Sweden will probably go within a couple of months of that”
Turkey will ratify Finland's NATO membership by mid-April 2023 and ratify Sweden's within about two months thereafter.
- Made on
- 2023-04-05
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-23
Turkey's parliament ratifies Finland's accession by ~mid-April 2023 and ratifies Sweden's accession by ~early June 2023.
Compound criterion. Part A ('Turkey's parliament ratifies Finland's accession by ~mid-April 2023') was MET — the Turkish parliament voted 276-0 on 2023-03-30, even earlier than ~mid-April. Part B ('and ratifies Sweden's accession by ~early June 2023') was NOT MET — Turkey did not ratify Sweden's accession until 2024-01-23, far past the 2023-06-05 deadline. As written (a conjunction with an ~early-June-2023 deadline for the Sweden leg), the overall prediction did NOT come true on time. Minor source discrepancy: most contemporaneous reporting (Al Jazeera/CNN/NPR/anews) dates the Turkish Sweden vote to 2024-01-23; English Wikipedia states '25 January 2024' — the difference does not affect resolution since both are ~7.5 months past deadline. resolved_on set to the date the second (Sweden) leg's outcome became determinate (2024-01-23). No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Building the Anti-Russian Alliance || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Turkish parliament (Grand National Assembly) ratified Finland's NATO membership on March 30, 2023; all 276 legislators present voted in favour. Turkey was the last of the then-30 NATO members to ratify Finland's accession. (Finland deposited its instrument of accession and formally joined NATO on 4 April 2023.)
Turkey's parliament ratified SWEDEN's NATO accession protocol on January 23, 2024 by 287 votes to 55 (four abstentions) — roughly 7.5 months after the record's ~early-June-2023 deadline for the Sweden portion.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.46- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Turkey will ratify Finland's NATO membership by mid-April 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources