Full record
HitpoliticsDonald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitpolitics“Donald Trump will walk away with the Republican nomination”
Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
- Made on
- 2023-04-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.92
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-07-15
Donald Trump is the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
Criterion MET. Donald Trump won the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, formally secured at the RNC on July 15, 2024 (delegate roll call) and accepted July 18, 2024 — within the prediction's 2024-07-18 deadline. resolved_on set to July 15, 2024, the date the delegate threshold was crossed and he became the nominee. Do NOT assign outcome value here.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || The Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Is...
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
2024 Republican National Convention (Milwaukee, July 15-18, 2024): Donald Trump was formally nominated as the Republican presidential nominee on July 15, 2024, when his home state of Florida pushed him past the 1,215-delegate threshold; he accepted the nomination on July 18, 2024. Criterion ('Trump is the 2024 Republican presidential nominee') met.
NPR live coverage of the 2024 RNC: confirms Trump was formally nominated and JD Vance named as his running mate (announced July 15, 2024); Trump delivered his acceptance speech on the convention's final night (July 18, 2024).
CBS News, 'Trump ... after being formally nominated with Vance': reports Trump officially became the 2024 Republican nominee on the first day of the convention (July 15, 2024).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.92- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources