Full record
HitgeopoliticsSweden will join NATO in the near future following Finland's April 2023 accession.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“The next step of course will be Swedish membership; that's going to take at least a few more weeks, but now that the Finns are in it's really only a matter of time.”
Sweden will join NATO in the near future following Finland's April 2023 accession.
- Made on
- 2023-04-04
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.92
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-07
Sweden formally accedes to NATO within roughly a year of April 2023.
Criterion ('Sweden formally accedes to NATO within roughly a year of April 2023') was MET. Sweden deposited its instrument of accession on 2024-03-07 — about 11 months after Finland's April 2023 accession and within the record's 2024-04-04 deadline. Strong primary source (NATO.int). No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Finland: NATO's Newest Member || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NATO official announcement: 'Sweden officially joins NATO' on March 7, 2024, upon depositing its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the U.S. Government in Washington DC. Sweden became NATO's 32nd member.
Sweden formally joined NATO on 7 March 2024 as the 32nd member, ending its long-held neutrality; Turkey's parliament approved Sweden's bid in January 2024 and Hungary in late February 2024, clearing the way for the March accession.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.92- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Sweden will join NATO in the near future following Finland'…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources