Prediction record
HitpoliticsWater allocation in the American Southwest will be a major, unavoidable political conflict over the next few years.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitpolitics“this is going to be an ugly ugly political issue for the next few years that is absolutely unavoidable but is absolutely critical if the United States in general in this region in specific is going to take it advantage of the demographic and geopolitical shifts that are racking our world right now”
Water allocation in the American Southwest will be a major, unavoidable political conflict over the next few years.
- Made on
- 2023-04-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.99
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-04-14
Within ~2023-2026, American Southwest water allocation becomes a prominent, contested political conflict (e.g. interstate dispute, federal intervention, or litigation over Colorado River water).
Written criterion: 'Within ~2023-2026, American Southwest water allocation becomes a prominent, contested political conflict (e.g. interstate dispute, federal intervention, or litigation over Colorado River water).' Clearly met: a sustained, high-profile Upper-vs-Lower-Basin interstate dispute over Colorado River allocation, multiple missed federal deadlines, active Interior/Reclamation intervention via the post-2026 NEPA process with a threatened federally-imposed plan, and a looming Supreme Court litigation threat — all within the window and still live at the deadline (April 14, 2026). No outcome value assigned (later stage). resolved_on = deadline.
Sources
The Water Crisis in the American Southwest || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Multi-year, prominent interstate political conflict over Colorado River water allocation throughout 2023-2026: the seven basin states (Upper Basin — CO, WY, UT, NM; Lower Basin — AZ, NV, CA) are fractured over who absorbs cuts for the post-2026 operating guidelines. Lower Basin offered ~1.25M acre-feet/yr in cuts; Upper Basin refused mandatory cuts (citing lack of legal authority). ~40M people, 5.5M acres of farmland and a $1.4T economy depend on the river. (Water Education Foundation / PBS NewsHour coverage of the negotiations and sticking points.)
Federal intervention and missed deadlines: the Interior Department / Bureau of Reclamation set a Nov 11, 2025 deadline (final details due Feb 2026) for a seven-state deal and warned Interior could 'step in to decide how to impose cuts' if states failed. States MISSED the Nov 11, 2025 deadline AND a Feb 14, 2026 deadline. Reclamation published a draft Environmental Impact Statement (Jan 2026) with action alternatives that would all cut water supplies, advancing the Post-2026 NEPA process toward finalized operating guidelines by Oct 1, 2026 (current guidelines lapse Sept 2026).
Explicit litigation / Supreme Court risk and ongoing stalemate into 2026: experts warn that absent a deal, Reclamation imposing one of its alternatives 'could lead to decades of litigation going up to the Supreme Court'; Arizona pressed the federal government to order water cuts. Coverage from Jan-Feb 2026 (Arizona Mirror, Deseret, Colorado Sun) documents the continuing, openly contested interstate dispute. This squarely satisfies 'prominent, contested political conflict (interstate dispute, federal intervention, or litigation over Colorado River water).'
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.99- Confidence
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.99
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Water allocation in the American Southwest will be a major,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources