Full record
MisspoliticsJoe Biden will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misspolitics“Biden is a shoeing to get the nomination”
Joe Biden will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.
- Made on
- 2023-04-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.48
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-07-21
Joe Biden is the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee.
Criterion ('Joe Biden is the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee') was NOT met. Biden was the presumptive nominee at the time of the April 2023 claim but withdrew on 2024-07-21; the actual nominee was Kamala Harris. Resolved_on set to the DNC end date (2024-08-22, the record's deadline) when the nominee was formally/ceremonially confirmed; the operative withdrawal occurred 2024-07-21. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || The Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Is...
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race on July 21, 2024 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris secured majority delegate support and became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
The 2024 Democratic National Convention (Aug 19-22, 2024, United Center, Chicago) ceremonially nominated Kamala Harris for president and Tim Walz for VP; delegates had virtually nominated Harris/Walz in early August. Joe Biden was NOT the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee.
Corrections
- resolution resolved on: The claim 'Biden wins the 2024 Democratic nomination' became determinately false the moment Biden withdrew and endorsed Harris (2024-07-21) — a Biden nomination was impossible thereafter. The record's own notes acknowledge the operative withdrawal was 2024-07-21. Accuracy tightening of the determinacy date; does not change the resolved/not-met outcome. Path is patch-correctable and the value is a valid date.
Effect on the score
-2.48- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Joe Biden will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nominat…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources