Full record
MissgeopoliticsUkraine will cease to be a significant agricultural exporter from 2023 onward, as Russia destroys its grain-export infrastructure.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Missgeopolitics“so last year was probably the last year that Ukraine will be a significant agricultural exporter”
Ukraine will cease to be a significant agricultural exporter from 2023 onward, as Russia destroys its grain-export infrastructure.
- Made on
- 2023-03-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-05-31
Ukraine's 2023 agricultural/grain exports fall to a level no longer considered 'significant' on world markets (e.g. a steep, multi-tens-of-percent collapse from its prior major-exporter volumes per FAO/USDA trade data).
Substantively the same claim as record peter-zeihan-202303-ukraine-2022-final-ag-year, made on 2023-03-23 with a 2023-12-31 deadline and an explicit quantitative criterion (steep multi-tens-of-percent collapse per FAO/USDA). Criterion NOT met: USDA-sourced totals show MY 2023/24 exports (~63.77 MMT) within ~2 MMT of the prior two years and wheat within ~5% of 2022, so Ukraine remained a significant world grain exporter through 2023. Russia did damage some grain-export infrastructure (notably post-July 2023 Odesa port strikes), but this did not produce the predicted collapse in 2023 export volumes. Resolved against the written criterion. Do NOT assign outcome value here.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Russia Targets the Ukraine Grain Deal
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
CSIS, 'Setting the Record Straight on Ukraine's Grain Exports' (citing USDA): Ukraine's MY 2023/24 grain and oilseed exports totaled 63.77 million metric tons — only ~2 MMT below BOTH MY 2021/22 and MY 2022/23. No steep multi-tens-of-percent collapse from prior major-exporter volumes; the criterion's threshold for 'no longer significant' was not reached.
USDA Economic Research Service (May 2024): Ukraine remained a top-10 global supplier of grains, sunflower seed, and sunflower products in MY 2023/24; exports declined from pre-war peaks but did not collapse to insignificance. Major buyers (China, Egypt, EU) continued sourcing Ukrainian grain.
USDA FAS Grain and Feed data (via search summary): July 2023–Jan 2024 wheat exports were 9.2 MMT, only ~5% below the same period in 2022 — far from a collapse. Confirms 2023 grain exports remained near prior wartime levels rather than falling to insignificance.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Ukraine will cease to be a significant agricultural exporte…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources