Prediction record
HiteconomyMore US banks will fail beyond Silvergate, Signature, and Silicon Valley Bank.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“they won't be the last probably”
More US banks will fail beyond Silvergate, Signature, and Silicon Valley Bank.
- Made on
- 2023-03-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-05-01
At least one additional US bank fails (closed by regulators or collapses) after Silvergate, Signature, and SVB within roughly the following year.
Criterion: at least one additional US bank fails (closed by regulators/collapses) after Silvergate, Signature, and SVB within ~the following year (by ~2024-03-15). Met decisively: three additional banks failed within the window (First Republic May 1 2023, Heartland Tri-State Jul 28 2023, Citizens Bank IA Nov 3 2023). resolved_on set to the first qualifying failure (First Republic, 2023-05-01). FDIC failed-bank list is the authoritative primary source; Bankrate cited as an accessible compilation of FDIC data — verify/archive against FDIC directly at verification stage if desired.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || The Financial Crisis of 2023?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
First Republic Bank (San Francisco) failed and was closed by regulators on May 1, 2023, seized by the FDIC and sold to JPMorgan Chase — the second-largest US bank failure in history. This is an additional US bank failing AFTER Silvergate, Signature, and SVB, well within the ~one-year deadline window (by 2024-03-15).
Heartland Tri-State Bank (Elkhart, Kansas) was closed by the Kansas state regulator and the FDIC on July 28, 2023 (failure tied to a crypto 'pig-butchering' scam), a further confirmed post-SVB failure inside the window.
Citizens Bank (Sac City, Iowa) was closed by regulators on November 3, 2023 — a third additional US bank failure within the deadline window, per the failed-bank list.
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: Transparency: the original basis implies deadline-table support that does not exist. Deadline (2024-03-15) left unchanged as a reasonable near-future window; the claim resolves true under any plausible horizon.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
More US banks will fail beyond Silvergate, Signature, and S…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources