Full record
MisseconomyChina's pork supply chain will experience significant disruptions from African swine fever, as bad as or worse than the 2018-2019 outbreak.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“we should expect some significant issues throughout the food supply chains for pork throughout the Chinese system will it be as bad as it was four years ago kind of believe it will if not worse”
China's pork supply chain will experience significant disruptions from African swine fever, as bad as or worse than the 2018-2019 outbreak.
- Made on
- 2023-03-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-17
China's pork supply chain suffers significant ASF-driven disruption (herd losses/supply contraction) comparable to or worse than the 2018-2019 outbreak within roughly the following year.
Criterion: China's pork supply chain suffers significant ASF-driven disruption (herd losses/supply contraction) comparable to or worse than 2018-2019 within ~the following year (by 2024-03-20). Resolvable and directionally negative: 2023 delivered RECORD pork production (57.94 MMT, +5%) versus the ~21% collapse of 2019, so the 'as bad as or worse than 2018-2019' bar was not met. resolved_on set to the USDA China annual report window (mid-Jan 2024). Outcome value left for quantify/score stage.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Famine: The Ultimate Country Killer
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
China's National Bureau of Statistics / industry reporting: China set a RECORD pork production high of 57.94 million tonnes in 2023, up ~5% year-over-year — the opposite of a severe supply contraction. ASF circulated (a Jan-Feb 2023 wave reportedly hit ~10% of the sow herd) but did NOT cause output collapse; 2023 was a year of oversupply and low producer margins.
USDA FAS (China Livestock and Products Annual, Jan 2024): China pork production recovered to/around pre-ASF ~55-57 MMT levels in 2022-2023; the 2024 forecast was only a ~1% decline to ~55.95 MMT on slightly lower sow inventory — far from a 2018-19-scale shock.
Baseline for comparison (2018-2019 outbreak): ~225 million swine died or were culled; 2019 hogs slaughtered fell 21.6% and pork production fell 21.3% YoY. The 2023-2024 ASF situation (record output, ~5% production rise, only modest sow-herd erosion) was NOT comparable to or worse than 2018-2019 — it was dramatically milder.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
China's pork supply chain will experience significant disru…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources