Full record
HiteconomyChina's phosphate exports will fall essentially to zero.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we should expect phosphate exports to more or less go to zero”
China's phosphate exports will fall essentially to zero.
- Made on
- 2023-03-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-15
Chinese phosphate (fertilizer) exports decline to approximately zero within roughly the following year.
Criterion: Chinese phosphate (fertilizer) exports decline to approximately zero within ~the following year (by 2024-03-20). Met within the window: an export halt from ~Nov 9 2023 drove DAP/MAP shipments to effectively zero by ~mid-Jan 2024 and held them suspended through April 2024. Nuance noted for transparency: full-year 2023 DAP exports were actually elevated (~4.05M t through Oct 2023, above 2022) before the late-year halt, so 'essentially zero' applies to the late-2023/early-2024 sub-period inside the deadline, not the full calendar year. resolved_on set to ~mid-January 2024 when exports effectively ceased. Outcome value left for quantify/score stage; sources are industry trade trackers (Profercy/CZ App/Agri-Pulse) rather than Chinese customs primary data — verification stage could corroborate against China Customs (GACC) export statistics.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Famine: The Ultimate Country Killer
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
China announced a phosphate (DAP/MAP) export halt effective ~November 9, 2023; per Profercy/CZ App industry reporting, after a residual ~1.1-1.2 million tonnes cleared between mid-November 2023 and mid-January 2024, exports 'effectively dried up' and China withheld export clearance (CIQ) for fertilizers until at least April 2024 — i.e. shipments fell to essentially zero within the deadline window (by 2024-03-20).
Profercy: 'December sees latest Chinese DAP/MAP export halt' — documents the late-2023 suspension of Chinese phosphate exports, the mechanism by which exports were driven toward zero.
Magnitude/persistence corroboration (Agri-Pulse / industry data): Chinese phosphate exports collapsed to a fraction of historical levels — e.g. Q1 2025 exports were ~111,000 t vs a three-year average of ~785,000 t, and just ~13,000 t in March 2025 vs ~950,000 t three years prior — confirming exports fell to near-zero during repeated suspension periods.
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: Transparency: original basis implies deadline-table support that does not exist. Deadline (2024-03-20) left unchanged; export halt reached ~zero by ~mid-Jan 2024, inside the window.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
China's phosphate exports will fall essentially to zero.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources