Full record
MissgeopoliticsThe Black Sea Grain Initiative will not be renewed at the late-May 2023 renewal point.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Missgeopolitics“we should not expect to see the green deal renewed come late May”
The Black Sea Grain Initiative will not be renewed at the late-May 2023 renewal point.
- Made on
- 2023-03-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-05-17
At the renewal deadline around late May 2023, the Black Sea Grain Initiative lapses / is not extended by the parties.
Criterion ('At the renewal deadline around late May 2023, the BSGI lapses / is not extended') was NOT met. The deal was extended on May 17, 2023 for 60 days. Russia did ultimately exit the initiative, but on July 17, 2023 — at the subsequent mid-July renewal, after the late-May point the prediction specifically named (deadline 2023-05-31). Resolved against the written late-May criterion. Do NOT assign outcome value here.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Russia Targets the Ukraine Grain Deal
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Foreign Policy and CNN (May 17, 2023): the Black Sea Grain Initiative WAS extended at the late-May 2023 renewal point. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN agreed on May 17, 2023 to extend the deal for another 60 days (to mid-July), one day before the May 18 expiry. The deal did not lapse at the late-May renewal — directly contrary to the criterion.
Wikipedia 'Black Sea Grain Initiative' (corroborating UN/news reporting): the May 17, 2023 extension ran the deal to July 17, 2023; Russia withdrew on July 17, 2023 when no new renewal was reached. The collapse occurred at the mid-JULY renewal, NOT the late-May 2023 renewal point named in the prediction.
CNN, 'Black Sea grain deal ... has been extended' (May 17, 2023): confirms the crucial pact aimed at averting a global food crisis was extended in mid-May 2023 after Istanbul talks, refuting the prediction that it would not be renewed at the late-May 2023 renewal.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Black Sea Grain Initiative will not be renewed at the l…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources