Prediction record
HitenergySolar panel manufacturing will return to / be established in the United States
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitenergy“solar panels are coming home”
Solar panel manufacturing will return to / be established in the United States
- Made on
- 2023-02-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-09-30
Whether meaningful domestic solar panel manufacturing is established in the United States by ~early 2026
Criterion: whether meaningful domestic solar panel manufacturing is established in the United States by ~early 2026. It clearly WAS. Driven by IRA incentives, US module manufacturing capacity grew roughly 4-7x (from ~8 GW to 50+ GW per year) between 2022 and 2025, and domestic silicon solar-cell production resumed in Q3 2024 for the first time since 2019, with cell capacity continuing to expand into 2025. Multiple credible industry sources (Wood Mackenzie, SEIA) confirm a substantial, ongoing domestic manufacturing buildout. The predicted return/establishment of US solar panel manufacturing occurred well before the deadline. resolved_on set to ~Q3 2024 (2024-09-30), the quarter US cell manufacturing resumed and module manufacturing set records — the clearest inflection confirming the prediction true. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || China's Competitive Edge: Solar Exports
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Wood Mackenzie press release: US solar MODULE manufacturing capacity surpassed the 200 GW milestone with a 71% increase in Q1 2024 (announced as the largest quarter of manufacturing growth in US history); a later release notes US solar CELL production capacity doubled to 2 GW in Q1 2025 with a new South Carolina factory and 8.6 GW of new module capacity added across eight factories in TX/OH/AZ. Demonstrates solar panel manufacturing is firmly established/returned in the US.
Aggregated SEIA US Solar Market Insight reporting (Q3/Q4 2024): US solar cell manufacturing RESUMED in Q3 2024 — silicon solar cells were manufactured in the United States for the first time since 2019 — while module manufacturing set a record. US module production capacity rose from ~8 GW/yr pre-IRA to ~56.5 GW/yr by mid-2025 (a >700% increase), enough to meet nearly all domestic demand.
Wood Mackenzie (Q1 2025): US added 8.6 GW of new module manufacturing capacity from eight new/expanded factories (TX, OH, AZ) and US solar cell production capacity doubled to 2 GW with a new South Carolina plant — confirming sustained, growing domestic manufacturing well within the ~Feb 2026 deadline.
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: Clarify the +36mo comes from the 'in the coming years/within a few years' inference family, not the bare price-target default (this is not a price/level target). Deadline (2026-02-01) unchanged; resolution stands (resolved TRUE well inside window).
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Solar panel manufacturing will return to / be established i…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources