Prediction record
HiteconomyUS inflation will continue to drop for the next couple of months (through approximately April-May 2023).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“for the next couple of months I would expect it to continue to be dropping”
US inflation will continue to drop for the next couple of months (through approximately April-May 2023).
- Made on
- 2023-02-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-05-10
US headline inflation (CPI) continues to decline month-over-month through approximately April 2023.
Criterion ('US headline CPI continues to decline through approximately April 2023') is met on the most natural reading (year-over-year headline rate), which fell every month Feb->Mar->Apr 2023 (6.0% -> 5.0% -> 4.9%). Minor nuance for the later stage: month-over-month headline CPI was small but positive (prices still rising, just more slowly) in Feb-Apr 2023, so if 'inflation drop' were read as falling month-over-month price levels it would be false; the standard interpretation of 'inflation continues to drop' (the inflation RATE falling) is satisfied. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Inflation: The Gift that Keeps on...Taking
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BLS headline CPI year-over-year fell steadily through the prediction window: 6.4% (Jan 2023) -> 6.0% (Feb 2023, made-on month) -> 5.0% (March 2023) -> 4.9% (April 2023, the smallest since spring 2021). Continuous month-after-month decline in the YoY headline rate through April 2023, exactly as predicted.
Contemporaneous reporting on the official BLS releases confirms the trajectory: March 2023 CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 5.0% y/y (lowest since May 2021); April 2023 CPI eased to 4.9% y/y. Month-over-month prints also decelerated/were small-positive (+0.4% Feb, +0.1% Mar), consistent with disinflation continuing through ~April.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US inflation will continue to drop for the next couple of m…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources