Full record
MisseconomyOver the next two to three years, US financial-sector employment will fall by roughly one third.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“we will probably see the number of people employed in the financial sector in the United States dropped by a similar number”
Over the next two to three years, US financial-sector employment will fall by roughly one third.
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-02-16
US financial-sector employment declines by approximately one third (~33%) versus the Feb 2023 level by roughly Feb 2026.
Hard primary-source resolution via BLS CES. Criterion requires US financial-sector employment to decline by ~33% versus the Feb 2023 level (9,152K) by ~Feb 2026. Actual Feb 2026 level was 9,149K, virtually unchanged (a ~33% drop would have required falling to roughly ~6,100K). The predicted collapse did not occur. Note: 'financial activities' is the standard BLS supersector (finance & insurance + real estate & rental/leasing); if a later stage prefers the narrower 'finance and insurance' subsector the magnitude conclusion is unchanged (no one-third decline).
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Why the Fed Is Shrinking the Balance Sheet
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS Current Employment Statistics, Financial Activities supersector, all employees, seasonally adjusted (series CES5500000001): February 2023 = 9,152 thousand; February 2026 = 9,149 thousand. That is a change of about -3,000 jobs, roughly -0.03% over the three years — essentially flat, not a ~one-third decline.
Context from the latest BLS Employment Situation (May 2026 release): financial activities employment was only modestly off a May 2025 peak (down ~107,000 from that peak, i.e. ~1%), confirming the sector remained near record-high employment in early 2026 with no structural one-third collapse.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Over the next two to three years, US financial-sector emplo…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources