Full record
HiteconomyUS egg prices will remain elevated for another three to four months (through approximately May-June 2023).
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we are still looking at high egg prices for another three to four months”
US egg prices will remain elevated for another three to four months (through approximately May-June 2023).
- Made on
- 2023-02-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-06-10
US average retail egg prices remain elevated (well above pre-2022 baseline) through approximately June 2023 before normalizing.
Criterion (US average retail egg prices remain elevated well above pre-2022 baseline through ~June 2023 before normalizing) is supported. Path: $4.82/dozen peak (Jan 2023) -> declining through spring -> ~$2.09 by July 2023, vs a 2021 baseline of $1.67. Even the July trough (~$2.09) is ~25% above baseline, and Feb-June prices were substantially higher, so prices clearly stayed elevated through the May-June 2023 window and normalized afterward, matching Zeihan's 'another three to four months' framing from his 2023-02-10 statement. NOTE: the second evidence URL (stockanalysis) was the search-surfaced carrier for the BLS-derived monthly figures ($4.82 peak, ~$2.09 July, $2.80 2023 avg); primary monthly series is BLS APU0000708111 / FRED (both 403-blocked WebFetch but figures corroborated across US Inflation Calculator and BLS). resolved_on = deadline 2023-06-10. Did NOT assign outcome value.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Why Are My Eggs So D*** Expensive?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US average retail price for a dozen Grade A large eggs peaked at $4.82 in January 2023 (avian-influenza-driven), then declined through spring 2023 — remaining far above the pre-2022 baseline through the spring/early-summer window. Source: US Inflation Calculator (citing BLS CPI data), with the 2021 annual average at $1.67/dozen.
Prices were still well above baseline through mid-2023, reaching about $2.09/dozen only by July 2023 — i.e. they normalized (began returning toward the ~$1.67 2021 baseline) only after the ~May-June 2023 window. The 2023 full-year average was $2.80 (vs 2021's $1.67), and retail egg prices rose only 1.4% in 2023 after the 32.2% jump in 2022, reflecting the elevated-then-easing path.
BLS confirmed eggflation was still very high but decelerating in early 2023 (producer prices for chicken eggs +64.3% year-over-year in Feb 2023), consistent with prices remaining sharply elevated through the spring before easing.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US egg prices will remain elevated for another three to fou…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources