Full record
HitsocietyThe Turkey-Syria earthquake death toll will exceed 20,000 within one week of 2023-02-07
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitsociety“they'll probably be over 20 000 within a week”
The Turkey-Syria earthquake death toll will exceed 20,000 within one week of 2023-02-07
- Made on
- 2023-02-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-02-09
Whether the confirmed Turkey-Syria earthquake death toll exceeded 20,000 by ~14 Feb 2023
Criterion (toll exceeded 20,000 by ~14 Feb 2023) is unambiguously met; 20,000 was surpassed within days and the toll was ~36,000+ by 13 Feb 2023 and ~59,000+ ultimately. Resolved_on set to ~2023-02-09 as the approximate date the 20,000 threshold was crossed within the week. Figures from official Turkish AFAD and Syrian sources as aggregated by Wikipedia and major outlets. Did NOT assign outcome value.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Earthquakes Wreak Havoc on Turkey and Syria
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5 earthquakes struck on 6 Feb 2023. By 13 Feb 2023 (within one week of the 7 Feb reference), the combined confirmed death toll across Turkey and Syria had reached at least 36,217 (31,643 in Turkey; 4,574 in Syria) — far above the 20,000 threshold. The toll crossed 20,000 in the first several days (~9-10 Feb).
CNN live coverage dated 13 Feb 2023 headlined 'Over 36,000 dead from quake in Turkey and Syria,' confirming the toll was tens of thousands within the one-week window and well past 20,000.
The final confirmed toll later reached 53,537 in Turkey plus an estimated 5,951-8,476 in Syria (over 59,000 total), underscoring the threshold was vastly exceeded.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Turkey-Syria earthquake death toll will exceed 20,000 w…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources