Prediction record
MisseconomyThere will be significant global food inflation later in 2023.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“we're going to have significant food inflation on a global basis later this year”
There will be significant global food inflation later in 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-02-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-01-05
Global food prices (e.g., FAO Food Price Index or equivalent) show a significant inflationary increase in the latter part of 2023.
Criterion = headline FAO Food Price Index (or equivalent) showing a significant inflationary increase in the LATTER part of 2023. Official FAO monthly data show the headline index essentially flat in Sept then declining Oct-Dec (121.5 -> 118.5), with the full year ~13.7% below 2022. The directional claim (significant late-2023 food inflation) is contradicted by the primary metric. Only the sugar sub-index rose notably; both sides noted. Quantify/score stage decides the outcome value; this is a resolved record with directionally negative evidence on the written criterion.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Inflation: The Gift that Keeps on...Taking
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
FAO Food Price Index official monthly values for the latter part of 2023 were flat-to-declining, not rising: August 121.4, September 121.5 (FAO headline: 'unchanged in September'), October 120.6 (down ~0.5%), November ~120.1, December 118.5 (down 1.5% from November). There was no significant inflationary INCREASE in the headline index in late 2023.
FAO: the Food Price Index averaged 118.5 points in December 2023, down 10.1% year-over-year vs December 2022, and the full-year 2023 average was 13.7% LOWER than 2022 — a year of broad food-price DEFLATION, the opposite of the predicted late-2023 inflationary surge.
October 2023 FAO Food Price Index averaged 120.6 points, down from 121.3 the prior month (Reuters/US News, citing FAO) — confirming the index fell, not rose, heading into late 2023.
Counter-signal (noted for transparency, does not meet the headline criterion): the FAO SUGAR sub-index spiked in Sept 2023 to its highest level since 2011 on tighter global supply, and 2023 sugar was the only major sub-index above its 2022 level. This is a single component, not the overall FAO Food Price Index named in the criterion, which did not show a significant increase.
Corrections
- horizon type: Deadline 2023-12-31 is derived by applying the deadline table's 'this year' → Dec 31 rule to the phrase 'later this year', not stated as an explicit calendar date; per methodology this is an inferred horizon (consistent with how the sibling 'within 40 years' record is typed). Deadline date is unchanged.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
There will be significant global food inflation later in 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources