Prediction record
25% outcomeeconomyThe Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least one more full percentage point, and likely closer to three, from the current level.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomeeconomy“the FED is not done raising he's got at least another full percentage point to go I would argue probably closer to three”
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least one more full percentage point, and likely closer to three, from the current level.
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.58
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-02-16
Cumulative additional Fed rate hikes from the Feb 2023 level total at least 100 bps (target: closer to 300 bps) before the hiking cycle ends.
Hard primary-source resolution. Cumulative additional hikes from the Feb 2023 level (upper limit 4.75%) to the cycle peak (upper limit 5.50%) totaled +75 basis points — BELOW the criterion's 'at least 100 bps' threshold, and far below the 'closer to 300 bps' target. The hiking cycle ended in July 2023 with no further increases before the 2024-02-16 deadline. The 100 bps minimum bar was not met.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Why the Fed Is Shrinking the Balance Sheet
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Federal Reserve official FOMC record: the target federal funds range on the prediction date (2023-02-16) was 4.50-4.75% (set at the 1 Feb 2023 meeting, upper limit 4.75%). The Fed then hiked +25 bps on 22 Mar 2023 (4.75-5.00%), +25 bps on 3 May 2023 (5.00-5.25%), and +25 bps on 26 Jul 2023 (5.25-5.50%). No further hikes followed; 5.25-5.50% was the cycle peak and was held through the 2024-02-16 deadline (first cut not until 18 Sep 2024).
Corroboration: the Fed reached a 22-year-high 5.25-5.50% in July 2023 and held it through most of 2024, beginning cuts only in September 2024. Total additional tightening from the Feb 2023 level was three 25 bp hikes = +75 bps.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.58- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.58
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources