Prediction record
MisstechSouth Korea will join the US-led semiconductor export-control system by the end of 2023
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“they're the last ones I would expect for them to join the system later this year as well”
South Korea will join the US-led semiconductor export-control system by the end of 2023
- Made on
- 2023-01-31
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Whether South Korea formally aligned with the US-led semiconductor export-control regime against China by 2023-12-31
Criterion: whether South Korea formally aligned with the US-led semiconductor export-control regime against China by 2023-12-31. Evidence consistently shows it did NOT. In contrast to Japan and the Netherlands (which both formally aligned and began enforcing in 2023), South Korea maintained only independent, industrial-competitiveness-based controls and as of early 2024 was still merely 'considering' cooperation; the US escalated to unilateral FDPR measures against Korean firms in Dec 2024 because Seoul had not adopted equivalent controls. The predicted formal alignment by end-2023 did not occur. No conflicting credible evidence found. resolved_on set to the deadline (the date by which the non-event is confirmed).
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Semiconductors: China's the Odd Man Out
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CSIS analysis 'Understanding U.S. Allies' Current Legal Authority to Implement AI and Semiconductor Export Controls': Japan and the Netherlands announced alignment with the Oct 2022 US controls in March 2023 (enforced July 2023 and Sept 2023 respectively), but South Korea did NOT join an equivalent allied regime. South Korea used its own 'Act on Prevention of Divulgence and Protection of Industrial Technology' independently, and the US later (Dec 2024) imposed expanded FDPR restrictions on South Korean equipment/HBM precisely because Seoul had not implemented controls equivalent to the US — confirming it remained outside the formal regime well past end-2023.
TrendForce (Mar 14, 2024) headline: 'South Korean Government CONSIDERING Cooperation with U.S. on Semiconductor Equipment Export Controls against China' — i.e., as of early 2024 (after the Dec 31, 2023 deadline) South Korea was still only weighing cooperation, not yet aligned. Confirms no formal join occurred by end-2023.
Tom's Hardware reports the US was still URGING South Korea to join the China sanctions regime and adjust export controls to prevent chipmaking-tool transfers — framing it as an outstanding request, not an accomplished alignment, consistent with South Korea remaining unaligned.
Corrections
- tags: Joining a US-led semiconductor export-control/sanctions regime against China is a between-states matter, which the controlled tag dictionary maps to 'geopolitics' (sanctions is a listed geopolitics example), not 'politics' (reserved for domestic politics). 'tech' remains the correct primary tag; both values are in the enum.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
South Korea will join the US-led semiconductor export-contr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources