Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsRussia will launch a large-scale multi-axis assault on Ukraine in spring 2023 using its additional mobilized manpower
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“at the moment the Russians are waiting for spring so they can throw those extra half a million men and just come at the ukrainians from multiple angles”
Russia will launch a large-scale multi-axis assault on Ukraine in spring 2023 using its additional mobilized manpower
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-21
Whether Russia launched a broad-based, multi-axis offensive in Ukraine during spring 2023 (by ~21 June 2023)
The criterion (whether Russia launched a broad-based, multi-axis offensive by ~21 June 2023) is met negatively: no such offensive occurred. Russia's much-discussed winter/spring 2023 'offensive' devolved into localized attritional fighting (notably the Bakhmut siege, plus failed/limited pushes at Vuhledar, Avdiivka, and Kreminna) and by April 2023 Russia had pivoted to defensive entrenchment ahead of Ukraine's counteroffensive. Putin's spring conscription (~147,000, inducted Apr 1-Jul 15, 2023) was a routine semiannual call-up used largely to replace losses, not to mount a broad new offensive. Resolved_on set to the deadline (~21 June 2023), by which date it was clear the predicted multi-axis assault did not happen. Outcome value (o) and scoring deliberately not assigned (later stage).
Sources
The 2nd Holodomor: A Pending Genocide
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Institute for the Study of War (via Critical Threats) March 2023 assessments: Russia's anticipated broad multi-axis offensive failed to materialize. Russian offensive activity was concentrated in narrow sectors — intensive but culminating operations at Bakhmut; limited/marginal ground attacks along Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna. Ukrainian GUR spokesperson Vadym Skibitsky (March 23, 2023) stated Russian forces had demonstrated they are 'unable to maintain large-scale, strategic-level offensives on multiple axes of advance' due to manpower exhaustion, industrial constraints, and command challenges; ISW assessed Russian offensive capability approached culmination by late March 2023.
Wikipedia '2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive' (citing contemporaneous reporting): After the late-2022 Kherson/Kharkiv counteroffensives, front lines largely stagnated with fighting 'mostly concentrated around the city of Bakhmut during the first half of 2023.' Rather than launching a broad offensive, Russia shifted to a defensive posture — building an ~800 km (500 mi) defensive line by April 2023 (eventually ~2,000 km of fortifications) to prepare for the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive. No large-scale, multi-axis Russian spring offensive comparable to the 2022 invasion occurred; the major spring/summer 2023 offensive was Ukraine's counteroffensive, which began ~June 4-15, 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Russia will launch a large-scale multi-axis assault on Ukra…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources