Full record
HitgeopoliticsGermany will relent and allow other countries to send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine within a very short number of weeks.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“I think we're going to see the Germans relent on at least letting other countries send their leopards within a very short number of weeks”
Germany will relent and allow other countries to send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine within a very short number of weeks.
- Made on
- 2023-01-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-01-25
By ~2023-04-17, Germany formally permits other countries to re-export their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Criterion (Germany formally permits re-export of allies' Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine by ~2023-04-17) was met, and very quickly. Initial reports surfaced 2023-01-24; Scholz's formal announcement was 2023-01-25 — using the latter as resolved_on. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
A New Wave of German Strategic Defense Policy
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Germany formally relented and permitted other countries to re-export their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on 2023-01-24/25. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced on Wednesday 2023-01-25 that Germany would send its own Leopard 2s AND would authorize/grant export licenses to other Leopard 2 operators (notably Poland and Finland, which had requested permission) to send theirs to Ukraine. This is well within the ~2023-04-17 deadline and indeed only about one week after the 2023-01-17 prediction.
Al Jazeera (2023-01-24) corroborates that Berlin granted other countries, such as Poland and Finland, the licence to re-export their Leopard 2 stocks to Ukraine, alongside committing at least one company (~14) of its own Leopard 2A6 tanks.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Independently confirmed against transcript IGkzPGBkGhw: THIS record's verbatim reads 'I think we're going to see the Germans relent...'; the committal marker is 'I think'. 'probably' does not appear in this passage — it belongs to the sibling own-production passage ('probably in uh February and March...'). Data-accuracy fix; record stays scoreable and its resolution is unaffected.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Germany will relent and allow other countries to send their…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources