Full record
MisseconomyChina's manufacturing sector will be effectively offline for at least three to four months from mid-December 2022 as the COVID wave spreads through the population.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“China being offline from a manufacturing point of view for at least the next three or four months because it will take them that long for this current version of covid to boil through the population”
China's manufacturing sector will be effectively offline for at least three to four months from mid-December 2022 as the COVID wave spreads through the population.
- Made on
- 2022-12-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-04-14
TRUE if Chinese manufacturing output/activity was severely depressed (effectively offline) for a stretch of at least ~3-4 months beginning mid-December 2022 due to the COVID wave; FALSE if manufacturing largely continued or recovered well before ~3 months.
Decisively contradicted on the written criterion. The COVID-driven disruption to Chinese manufacturing was on the order of weeks (peak Dec 2022-early Jan 2023), with PMI back in expansion by Jan 2023 and positive YoY industrial/manufacturing output growth over Jan-Feb 2023. There was no ~3-4-month stretch of manufacturing being 'effectively offline' beginning mid-December 2022. (Note: one secondary search returned a +6.3% Jan-Feb figure; the authoritative NBS release gives +2.4% total / +2.1% manufacturing — both show growth, so the conclusion is unchanged.) Direction of evidence (not scored here): supports the prediction as FALSE.
Sources
COVID: China's Problem Child
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
China's official NBS manufacturing PMI rebounded into EXPANSION at 50.1 in January 2023 (above the 50 threshold) as the COVID 'exit wave' ended — within roughly one month of the mid-December 2022 reopening, not 3-4 months offline. CNN/Reuters reported activity expanded 'for the first time in months' and analysts expected further rises in February.
Official NBS data show China's industrial value-added GREW year-on-year in January-February 2023 (total +2.4%, manufacturing +2.1%), i.e., the manufacturing sector was operating and expanding, not 'effectively offline,' during the very window the prediction said it would be shut down.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
China's manufacturing sector will be effectively offline fo…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources