Full record
HitpoliticsThe Biden administration will impose more, not fewer, punitive tariffs on imports.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitpolitics“I do not expect the bite Administration to be done with punitive tariffs he's actually taking everything that Trump ever did and put in the policy so expect to see more not less”
The Biden administration will impose more, not fewer, punitive tariffs on imports.
- Made on
- 2022-12-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-27
Over the window, test whether the Biden administration's net tariff actions increase (more/expanded punitive tariffs) rather than reduce existing tariffs.
Deadline 2025-12-23 has passed; clearly resolvable. Over the window the Biden administration's net tariff actions INCREASED (kept ~$360B in existing Section 301 tariffs, allowed exclusions to lapse, and added/raised tariffs on $18B more across EVs, solar, semis, steel/aluminum, batteries, minerals, medical goods, effective Sept 27 2024). No material reduction of existing punitive tariffs occurred. Directionally matches the prediction (more, not fewer, punitive tariffs). No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
I Want an Automobile for Christmas
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
White House Fact Sheet (May 14, 2024): Biden directed increased Section 301 tariffs on $18B of Chinese imports — EVs 25%->100%, solar cells 25%->50%, semiconductors 25%->50% (by 2025), lithium-ion EV batteries 7.5%->25%, steel & aluminum 0-7.5%->25%, ship-to-shore cranes 0%->25%, critical minerals 0%->25%, medical products (syringes/PPE/gloves) up to 25-50%. Explicitly framed as protecting US workers from China's trade practices — i.e., MORE punitive tariffs.
Biden's USTR completed its statutory Section 301 review and decided to KEEP Trump's existing tariffs on roughly $360B of Chinese goods in place (not reduce them), let the vast majority of Trump-era tariff exclusions expire, and impose the additional $18B in hikes. Net effect: tariffs increased, none of the major existing punitive tariffs were rolled back.
USTR finalized the Section 301 increases on Sept. 13, 2024 (CNN); the new/higher rates (25%-100%) began taking effect Sept. 27, 2024, with further scheduled increases in 2025 and 2026 — confirming the increases were enacted, not merely proposed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Biden administration will impose more, not fewer, punit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources