Prediction record
HiteconomyThe US will attract large inflows of foreign capital from around the world as US interest rates rise.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“at the same time rates are going up we're also going to be seeing the United States hoovering up capital from the world over”
The US will attract large inflows of foreign capital from around the world as US interest rates rise.
- Made on
- 2022-11-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
While US rates rise (through ~2023), the US records large net foreign capital inflows relative to other economies.
Criterion: while US rates rise (through ~2023), the US records large net foreign capital inflows relative to other economies. Outcome: well-supported as met — UNCTAD ranks the US the #1 FDI recipient globally in 2023 ($311B), with US inflows down only 3% vs. -23% for the rest of the EU; the US clearly attracted large inflows relative to other (especially European) economies during the rate-rise period. 'Large' and 'relative to other economies' are somewhat qualitative, but multiple primary/official sources (UNCTAD, BEA) point the same direction. Note month-to-month TIC volatility (a May 2023 net outflow) — full-year FDI ranking is the appropriate measure. No material conflicting evidence on the directional claim.
Sources
Implications of Rising Interest Rates
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
UNCTAD (UN Trade and Development) reports that in 2023 the United States was the world's largest recipient of foreign direct investment with US$311 billion, far ahead of #2 China (US$163B), Singapore (US$160B), Hong Kong (US$113B) and Brazil (US$66B). US inflows dipped only 3% year-on-year while inflows into the rest of the EU fell 23% — i.e., the US attracted large foreign capital inflows that held up markedly better than other major economies, especially Europe, during the 2023 rate-rise period.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis: the US received roughly $311 billion in inbound FDI in 2023; cumulative inbound position remained the world's largest, led by source countries Netherlands, Japan, Canada, UK. Corroborates large foreign capital inflows to the US in 2023.
US Treasury TIC data show large gross cross-border securities flows into the US through 2023 (e.g., net TIC inflows of $134.4B in August and $139.8B in December 2023), consistent with substantial foreign capital entering US markets as rates rose; monthly flows were volatile (e.g., a net outflow in May 2023), so the annual/structural FDI picture is the cleaner gauge.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US will attract large inflows of foreign capital from a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources