Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsRussia will be unable to conduct meaningful offensive military operations in Ukraine until at least May 2023
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“the Kirsten withdrawal and the likely route to come does Mark the end of any hope the Russians had of regaining any sort of strategic initiative or any sort of meaningful offensive operations until at least to May”
Russia will be unable to conduct meaningful offensive military operations in Ukraine until at least May 2023
- Made on
- 2022-11-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-02-28
From Nov 2022 through at least May 2023, Russia mounts no meaningful large-scale offensive operations in Ukraine
PREDICTION FALSE. The criterion required that from Nov 2022 through at least May 2023 Russia mount NO meaningful large-scale offensive operations. In fact Russia conducted a documented multi-axis winter offensive across Dec 2022-Mar 2023, including the capture of Soledar, the massive Bakhmut assault, and the Vuhledar mechanized offensive. These were unambiguously meaningful, large-scale offensive operations occurring well before May 2023. Resolution date set to 2023-02-28, by which point the winter offensive (Soledar fall, Vuhledar assault, intensified Bakhmut push) was indisputably underway. High confidence.
Sources
Russian Forces Withdraw from Kherson
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The 'Russian winter offensive in Ukraine (2022-2023)' was a large-scale, multi-axis Russian offensive launched well before May 2023, attacking along roughly six axes (Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Kreminna-Lyman, Marinka, Vuhledar). This directly contradicts the claim that Russia would mount no meaningful large-scale offensive operations from Nov 2022 through at least May 2023.
Russian forces captured Soledar by ~16 January 2023 and pressed a major, sustained assault on Bakhmut (one of the bloodiest battles of the war, the 'meat grinder'), with Wagner and regular forces — clearly a meaningful large-scale offensive operation occurring Dec 2022-Mar 2023, before the May threshold.
In late January-February 2023 Russia launched a major mechanized offensive on Vuhledar — described by Ukrainian forces as the largest tank battle of the invasion up to that point — and broader analysts (Moscow Times, RFE/RL) reported an active Russian winter offensive underway by Feb 2023. US estimates put ~20,000 Russian troops killed in this offensive period, underscoring its scale.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Russia will be unable to conduct meaningful offensive milit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources