Prediction record
25% outcometechOver the next two to three years China will be largely cut out ('melon scooped') of all global semiconductors
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcometech“We are looking at China perhaps being melon scooped out of all global semiconductors over the course of the next two to three years.”
Over the next two to three years China will be largely cut out ('melon scooped') of all global semiconductors
- Made on
- 2022-10-17
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.28
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-10-17
By ~2025, China is effectively excluded from the global advanced-semiconductor supply chain (cannot access/produce leading-edge chips)
Criterion: by ~2025 China effectively excluded from the global advanced-semiconductor supply chain (cannot access/produce leading-edge chips). The prediction was sweeping ('largely cut out of ALL global semiconductors'). Reality: targeted U.S. export controls restricted the very top tier (leading-edge EUV tools, top-end NVIDIA GPUs like H100/H200/B200), and there ARE real frontier gaps — China lacks EUV, cannot domestically make true leading-edge (3nm/below) logic at scale, and SMIC's advanced-node yields are low. But 'largely cut out of all' is falsified: China still imports/exports record volumes, accesses China-tuned and gray-market high-end chips, and produces near-frontier 7nm/5nm-pilot silicon. Both nuances logged. No outcome value (o) assigned.
Sources
China and Semiconductors
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Through the ~2-3 year window China was NOT cut out of global semiconductors. NVIDIA sold roughly 1 million China-specific H20 AI accelerators in 2024 (SemiAnalysis), and Chinese firms (ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent) reportedly spent ~$16B stockpiling ~1.3-1.6M H20 units ahead of tighter controls; demand was robust enough that NVIDIA ordered 300,000 more H20s from TSMC in mid-2025. China retained substantial access to the global advanced-chip supply chain.
Domestically, China produces near-frontier chips: SMIC 7nm (Kirin 9000s, 2023) and a 5nm node in pilot for 2026 mass production, using repurposed DUV immersion (ASML ArFi) tools — about 90 ArFi machines (worth $5-7B) acquired in 2024. China is not 'effectively excluded' from producing leading-edge-adjacent chips.
China's 2024 chip IMPORTS rose 10.4% to USD 385 billion (549.2 billion ICs, +14.6%) and IC EXPORTS hit USD 159.5 billion (+17.4%) — record two-way semiconductor trade, the opposite of being 'largely cut out' / 'melon scooped' of all global semiconductors.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.28- Confidence
- 55%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.28
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Over the next two to three years China will be largely cut…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources