Prediction record
MisstechChina will be permanently unable to manufacture advanced chips for cars or computers (its advanced-semiconductor manufacturing capability is dead).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“the Chinese are never going to be able to make the chips that go into cars or computers”
China will be permanently unable to manufacture advanced chips for cars or computers (its advanced-semiconductor manufacturing capability is dead).
- Made on
- 2022-10-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -4.41
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-10-17
By 2025-10-17, China does not achieve domestic volume manufacturing of advanced (roughly leading-edge logic) chips for automotive/computing use.
Criterion asks whether 'By 2025-10-17, China does NOT achieve domestic volume manufacturing of advanced (roughly leading-edge logic) chips for automotive/computing use.' Evidence shows China DID achieve domestic volume manufacturing of 7nm-class logic (SMIC N+2/N+3) for both phone SoCs (Kirin) and AI/compute (Ascend 910B/910C), so the prediction's absolute framing ('permanently unable... dead') is contradicted. Counter-point to log for the scorer: China still cannot do EUV-based true leading-edge (3-5nm) at competitive scale, yields are low (~20-40%), and it depends on stockpiled/foreign HBM — so if 'advanced' is read strictly as state-of-the-art leading edge, China remains behind. Both sides noted; outcome value (o) not assigned.
Sources
The Bad News Continues for China's Semiconductor Industry
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ITIF (Aug 2024) and Tom's Hardware: SMIC manufactures 7nm-class (N+2) logic domestically using DUV (no EUV) — used for Huawei's Kirin 9000S (Mate 60 Pro, 2023) and subsequent Kirin chips, and the Kirin 9030 (Mate 80, on SMIC N+3) is described as 'China's most advanced domestic semiconductor manufacturing to date.' Volume is real (tens of millions of phone SoCs) though yields are low (~20-40%) and true 5nm/EUV remains out of reach.
TrendForce/DigiTimes (Feb 2025): Huawei's Ascend 910C AI accelerator is a fully in-house chip built on SMIC's 7nm (N+2) process (~53B transistors); yield improved from ~20% (Sep 2024) to ~40%, making the Ascend production line profitable. Plans cited: ~300K Ascend 910B + ~100K 910C in 2025. This is domestic volume manufacturing of advanced logic for computing/AI — directly contradicting 'permanently unable.'
Bloomberg (Dec 11, 2025): 'China's Huawei and SMIC Make Progress With Chips, Report Finds' — independent reporting that China's advanced-chip manufacturing capability is advancing, not collapsing (full text behind paywall; headline and search summaries confirm continued progress).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-4.41- Confidence
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -4.41
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
China will be permanently unable to manufacture advanced ch…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources