Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsUS-Cuba diplomatic engagement rebounds and increases under the Biden Administration.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“we will now see a rebound under the Biden Administration”
US-Cuba diplomatic engagement rebounds and increases under the Biden Administration.
- Made on
- 2022-09-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-01-20
A measurable increase in US-Cuba diplomatic engagement (restored talks, eased policy, expanded contacts) occurs during the Biden Administration.
Criterion (a measurable increase in US-Cuba diplomatic engagement — restored talks, eased policy, expanded contacts — during the Biden Administration) is clearly met: restored migration talks (2022), eased travel/remittance policy (May 2022), resumed Law Enforcement Dialogue, removal from the 'not cooperating' terrorism-cooperation list (May 2024), and the Jan 14, 2025 SST de-designation. Both-sides context for later stages: Cuba's economy deteriorated and crackdowns continued throughout, limiting deeper rapprochement, and Trump reversed the SST de-designation immediately after the Jan 20, 2025 deadline — but those do not negate that engagement measurably increased relative to the Trump-era baseline during Biden's term. resolved_on set to the deadline (end of the Biden Administration). All sources are CRS/CFR/NPR and a sanctions-law firm tracker; congress.gov returned HTTP 403 to automated fetch but is cited from search-result text.
Sources
The Collapse of Empires
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CRS/CFR overview: Under Biden the US took multiple measurable steps to increase US-Cuba engagement during the window. May 2022: authorized scheduled/charter flights beyond Havana, reinstated group people-to-people educational travel, expanded immigrant-visa processing at the US Embassy in Havana, and removed caps on family remittances. April and November 2022: US and Cuban officials met to implement bilateral migration accords, reinstating the Cuban Family Reunification Parole program and raising visa issuance from January 2023.
Congressional Research Service: In January 2023 DHS launched a humanitarian parole program admitting up to 30,000/month from Cuba and other countries (>108,200 Cubans by Aug 2024). In May 2024 the Administration amended sanctions regulations to support Cuban private-sector entrepreneurs and removed Cuba from the annual 'not cooperating fully with US anti-terrorism efforts' list for the first time since 2019, citing resumption of the US-Cuban Law Enforcement Dialogue.
On January 14, 2025 (days before leaving office), President Biden issued a Certification rescinding Cuba's State Sponsor of Terrorism designation and revoked the Trump-era NSM restricting Cuba transactions, in the context of a Vatican-brokered prisoner release. (Note: incoming President Trump rescinded both actions shortly after his Jan 20, 2025 inauguration, reinstating the SST designation.)
NPR: Biden administration formally moved to remove Cuba from the state sponsor of terrorism list on January 14-15, 2025, alongside other sanctions-easing steps.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US-Cuba diplomatic engagement rebounds and increases under…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources