Full record
HitgeopoliticsRussian-European economic and political integration does not resume in the near term.
A scored prediction by Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“that is the end of this phase of Russian European integration don't count on it coming back anytime soon”
Russian-European economic and political integration does not resume in the near term.
- Made on
- 2022-09-16
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-09-16
No meaningful resumption of Russia-EU economic/political integration (trade normalization, re-integration) within the window.
Criterion requires NO meaningful resumption of Russia-EU economic/political integration within Sept 16, 2022 – Sept 16, 2023. The opposite of resumption occurred: the EU prolonged sectoral sanctions (Jan 2023) and adopted the 11th (June 2023) and 12th (Dec 2023) packages, deepening disintegration. No conflicting evidence of any trade normalization or re-integration. The 'no reintegration' state held throughout the window.
Sources
Germany and Russia
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
EU Council: On January 27, 2023, the EU prolonged its sectoral economic sanctions on Russia (broad restrictions on trade, finance, technology/dual-use, industry, transport, luxury goods) for a further six months — i.e., sanctions deepened, with no move toward trade normalization or re-integration.
EU Council timeline: In June 2023 the EU adopted its 11th package of sanctions (adding anti-circumvention tools), and in December 2023 a 12th package — a continuous tightening throughout 2023 with no resumption of Russia-EU economic or political integration.
Wikipedia overview of wartime sanctions confirms the EU progressively expanded sanctions and curtailed trade with Russia through 2022-2023; no trade normalization or political re-integration occurred in the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Russian-European economic and political integration does no…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources